Study On The Impact Of CHAIN-US Trade War On RMB Exchange Rate

In August 2017,the Trade Office of the United States Representative officially launched a “301 investigation” into China under the authorization of Trump.On March 22,2018,according to the “301 investigation”,President Trump formally signed a presidential memorandum of understanding on tariffs imposed on Chinese exports into the United States.Meanwhile,the government announced additional tariffs on some of our products and restrictions on our investment in USA.On the same day,China's Ministry of Commerce issued a list of discontinued concessional products against “232 measures” of steel and aluminium products in the United States to impose tariffs on some imported products from the United States.This marks the formal beginning of the current trade war between China and the United States,and in the following months,China and the United States have introduced extremely harsh tariff policies against each other in the field of trade,which has intensified the trade war.At the same time,the RMB exchange rate has presented unprecedented volatility in recent months.From August 2017,the United States launched a new round of "301 investigation " into China to March 2018,when Trump signed the presidential memorandum,the med-price of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate dropped continuously from 6.6736 to 6.322,and the RMB appreciated rapidly,the range is 5.26%.With the implementation of China's counter-measures against trade war and the progress of CHINA-US trade war,from April 2018 to July 2019,the mid-price of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate rose sharply from 6.2975 to 6.8752,reaching a peak of 6.9264 in October 2018,and the RMB devalued sharply,with a devaluation rate of 9.1%.the RMB exchange rate was continued in a high and violent fluctuation.For a long time,as an export oriented Chinese economy,the change of the RMB exchange rate will directly affect China's economic development and international trade level.At the same time,it will also have an impact on China's rise and the major strategic policy of "the belt and road" initiative and RMB internationalization.Therefore,that is a great significance to study the impact of CHINA-US trade war on the RMB exchange rate.In this context,firstly,this paper makes a detailed analysis and summary of the relevant research literature at home and abroad.On this basis,the theory and mechanism of the impact of CHINA-US trade war on RMB exchange rate is analyzed in detail.Then,on the basis of theoretical analysis and experimental analysis,the models of the impact of CHINA-US trade war on RMB exchange rate and the impact of JAPAN-US trade war on Japanese yuan exchange rate are constructed respectively,and empirical studies are carried out.The empirical results show that under the background of CHINA-US trade war,there is an equilibrium relationship between the RMB exchange rate,our tariffs,interst margin between CHINA-US,sino-us trade surplus,China's direct investment in the us and the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves and other factors,the amount of China's foreign exchange reserves and the interst margin between CHINA-US have a more obvious effect on China's exchange rate.China can effectively cope with the fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate between the CHINA-US trade war by stabilizing the scale of foreign exchange reserves,adjusting the interst margin between CHINA-US,accelerating the "the belt and road" initiative and accelerating the internationalization of RMB.