| With Chinese "The Belt and Road" initiative to vigorously implement the"Vietnam as China Belt and Road Initiative" in the economic region is one of the countries,trying to seize the historical opportunity and friendly coexistence Chinese,expand trade,promote bilateral trade quality.The Vietnamese territory and Chinese border,border residents trade has profound historical origin,and agricultural products,the scope of the audience preservation requirements higher characteristic also contributed to Vietnam and China in agricultural products trade in the development foundation,between the two countries in the agricultural products trade cooperation in the field of wide and deep.At the same time,under the background of RMB internationalization,the volatility of RMB exchange rate is significantly enhanced,and then the exchange rate risk will be generated,which will affect the import and export trade between the two countries.Based on the above background,this article will analyze and study the impact of RMB exchange rate change on the trade of Vietnamese middle agricultural products,and predict the trend of development of agricultural products trade between two countries.Based on the theories of international economics and international trade,this paper reviews the research status of scholars at home and abroad,and divides them into five chapters to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Vietnam's agricultural products trade.The annual data of the import and export of China's agricultural products from 2007 to 2016 were selected and analyzed with the VAR model.The empirical results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a significant influence on the import trade of the middle and agricultural products.The effect of RMB exchange rate on the trade between China and Vietnam is in line with the J curve effect,and the real exchange rate of RMB has a lag effect on it.The change of RMB exchange rate will cause the fluctuation of the import and export of agricultural products is in the appreciation of the RMB against vnd,the relative price of foreign currency that the China exports of agricultural products will increase the import of agricultural products from Vietnam,Chinese will be reduced;if the RMB devaluation of the south,on the import of agricultural products China increase exports.In the end of the thesis,from the two aspects of the exchange rate change and the policy means to promote the development of agricultural economy,the policy suggestions are put forward to effectively promote the trade of the Sino agricultural products. |
