| Exchange rate, an important economic variable, performs the function of transforming price in international finance and trades. The real efficient exchange rate overcomes the limitation of two-side exchange rate, which can not describe accurately the appreciation or the depreciation of a country's currency. So it has stronger influence on the competition of one country's product on the international market. Its variation may greatly influence the import and export of a country or an area. After China joining WTO, the degree of economic opening has been enlarged and the international trade has increased rapidly. People pay more attention to RMB exchange rate problems, especially in recent years and under the great pressure of RMB's appreciation. Since the Central Bank declared to increase RMB's value by 2% in July 21,2005, the total appreciation of RMB has surpassed 3% . Moreover, RMB still has the trend of further appreciation in the historic view of economic development of the world. As an important province in the field of trade, Shandong holds a degree of trade dependence of exceeding 30%. the variation of exchange rate influences Shandong province more obviously than it does to middle and western areas, so it is necessary to study ,to analyze the influence brought by the variation of exchange rate and to make scientific prediction. It will be propitious to both macroeconomic policy-making and microeconomic enterprises' decision-making.Firstly, this paper briefly reviews some related theories and documents, and on the basis of this, combining the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods, putting the stress on the influences brought by the variation of RMB reel effective exchange to the trade flow of Shandong Province. The quantitative analysis methods include ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition based on vector autoregression model The results of the... |
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