Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of Farmers' Income Change In Hebei Province Under The Background Of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Integration" Strategy

The integration of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei has created unprecedented opportunities for Hebei province,which not only promotes the development of social economy,but also creates favorable conditions for the development of agriculture in Hebei province.Issue of farmers' income as a major grain producing areas in Hebei province,has always been a matter of social concern,through the relevant data,the National Bureau of Statistics in 2018 in Hebei province animal husbandry fishery output have greatly improved,as high as 570.7 billion yuan,at the same time,the output value of the ratio of the total output value of national and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei also increased,respectively,5.02% and 89.25%.Compared with the rapid development of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,the growth rate of farmers' income is slower.In 2018,the per capita disposable income of farmers in Hebei province was 14,030.9 yuan,which is somewhat different from the average level of Beijing,Tianjin and the whole country.So looking for the growth point of farmers' income in Hebei province and analyzing the factors affecting farmers' income in Hebei province can not only improve the development status of Hebei province in the whole country,but also lay a foundation for continuing to promote the integration of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.On the whole,the per capita net income of farmers in Hebei province shows a trend of increasing year by year.Therefore,based on the empirical analysis conducted at the provincial level in Hebei province,data from 1993 to 2017 were mainly selected to determine the growth point of farmers' income in Hebei province by constructing multiple regression model and VAR model.At the county level,the evolution law of the spatial pattern of farmers' income in Hebei province was analyzed by using the exploratory spatial method by selecting the relevant data of 134 counties.Then,the spatial Durbin model was used to quantitatively analyze the factors affecting farmers' income in Hebei province,and the specific influence degree of each factor on the change of farmers' income in Hebei province and the relevant mechanism were clarified.The empirical study shows that: the implementation of the integration of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei has a significant impact on the household income and wage income of farmers.In Hebei province,the impact of farmers' family operating income on their own gradually weakens.In the long run,the higher degree of production intensification has the greatest impact on farmers' family operating income,while the change of industrial structure has a small impact.In the long run,the quality of rural labor force has the greatest impact on the wage income of farmers in Hebei province,followed by the level of rural nonagricultural employment and rural infrastructure,and finally the process of industrialization.The empirical study at county level in Hebei province shows that spatial factors have a significant positive impact on the change of farmers' income in Hebei province,and there is a significant spatial autocorrelation of farmers' per capita disposable income.The level of non-agricultural industry and the scale of agricultural industry will not only have a significant positive effect on local farmers' income,but also promote the growth of farmers' income in neighboring areas.The improvement of agricultural intensification level will restrain the growth of farmers' income to some extent and hinder the improvement of farmers' income in neighboring areas.The improvement of agricultural mechanization also has this effect.The employment scale of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery has no significant effect on farmers' income.The process of industrialization has a significant effect on the increase of farmers' income,but it has no significant effect on the increase of farmers' income in surrounding areas.Finally,based on the results of quantitative analysis,this paper puts forward some Suggestions and countermeasures to promote the income of farmers in Hebei province,including actively promoting the cooperative exploitation of resources,developing agricultural science and technology and improving the quality of farmers.