Research On Economic Disequilibrium Development Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Based On Spatial Econometric Model

The unbalanced development of regional economy is an unavoidable phenomenon in the economic development of all countries.As the third largest growth pole in Chinese economic growth after the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has played an important role in Chinese economic development.However,there are serious unbalanced problems in the economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.These problems will not only affect the speed and quality of economic development in this region,but also may restrict the coordination and sustainability of the whole economy.Based on a comprehensive grasp of the law of unbalanced economic development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,this study makes analysis and exploration on the factors that may cause the unbalanced economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The aim is to provide theoretical support to improve the economic disequilibrium development,and contribute to the implementation of the grand strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperation.This study mainly focuses on the following three aspects:(1)Analyze the characteristics of economic disequilibrium development in BeijingTianjin-Hebei: This aspect uses scientific and rational indicators to measure the unbalanced economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,analyzes the temporal characteristics and spatial evolution of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic unbalanced development respectively,and explores the spatial distribution of the economic development level in Beijing-TianjinHebei region with the method of exploratory space analysis.The results show that the economic level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei have certain spatial agglomeration,but the imbalance in the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has shown a constantly expanding trend.And the core areas centered on Beijing and Tianjin have not given full play to the role of radiation.The disequilibrium of the economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei continued to be significant.(2)Analyze the degree of the unbalanced economic development in Beijing-TianjinHebei: Based on the analysis of the non-equilibrium development level of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei by using factor analysis,the comprehensive index of the economic development level of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is obtained.Using the theil index decomposition method and the gini coefficient decomposition method,the main factors of the economic disequilibrium development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are preliminarily explored from the regional level and the industrial level respectively.These works provide a direction for the further development of the index system that will influence the economic imbalance of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The results show that the unbalanced economic development in the region dominates the unbalanced development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economy,and Beijing contributes the most to the disequilibrium within the region.The unbalanced development of the secondary and tertiary industries is another leading factor,and the concentration effect and the structural effect of the industry play a greater role.(3)Explore the causes of the unbalanced economic development of Beijing-TianjinHebei: On the basis of summarizing the previous research experience,the paper constructs the index system which affects the economic disequilibrium of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.By comparing the classical statistical model with the spatial econometric model,the space econometric model considering the space effect is more suitable for the model.In the four spatial panel models under four different effects,the optimal model is selected for analysis.It is found that the level of regional investment,industrial structure,market size,the degree of opening to the outside world,technological progress,economic location entropy and population quality are the main causes of the unbalanced economic development in BeijingTianjin-Hebei,and the influence of population quality and economic location entropy is the most prominent.