Research On Real Estate Bubble In Fuyang

In 1998,China carried out a comprehensive deepening of housing reform,and the development of China's real estate industry ushered in an opportunity.Under the blessings of various factors,China's real estate industry has achieved leapfrog development in the following decade.The vigorous development of the real estate industry has not only promoted the development of the national economy,but also greatly improved the housing level of the people.However,the rapid development has also brought a series of economic and social problems.The ever-rising housing prices and market speculation have drawn a big question mark on the health of the real estate market.Is there a bubble in the real estate market? How is the bubble? To this end,many scholars use different measures to analyze and study the real estate market in various places in order to find out the truth.However,in many studies,we have found that compared with the first and second-tier cities,the real estate bubble in the third-and fourth-tier cities is less valued.In order to make up for the research gap,this article is based on Fuyang City,a third-and fourth-tier city,to study its real estate development status.Fuyang City is located in the northwestern part of Anhui Province and has 3 districts,4 counties and 1 city under its jurisdiction,with a total area of 9,775 square kilometers.According to the sixth census,the total population of Fuyang City in 2018 was 10.708 million,of which 8.207 million were permanent residents,ranking first in Anhui Province.In terms of economic location,Fuyang City is an important city in the planning and construction of the Central Plains Economic Zone,and is also an important input place for industrial transfer in coastal areas.In the early days,the real estate industry in Fuyang City started relatively slowly,but in recent years,driven by the general environment and the economic development of Fuyang itself,the real estate industry in Fuyang City has developed rapidly and housing prices continued to rise overall.But whether the continuously rising house prices are rational,whether they are in line with the law of market development,and whether there is a real estate bubble are all worthy of further research.On the basis of fully reading the relevant literature on real estate bubbles at home and abroad,this article summarizes the formation,harm,and reasons affecting the development of real estate bubbles.Based on the real estate development in Fuyang City,the status of real estate development in Fuyang City is combed from two perspectives: macro and low light.At the same time,among the various real estate bubble measurement methods,the index system method was selected to measure the real estate bubble situation in Fuyang City.First,five representative indicators were selected through comparative screening,and these five indicators were used to measure the single bubble indicator of the real estate market in Fuyang City from 2004 to 2018.Then,factor analysis was used to weight the five indicators to evaluate the indicators.Comprehensive measurement and analysis of the real estate market bubble in the city.The conclusion shows that since 2012,the real estate market in Fuyang has begun to bubble and is becoming increasingly fierce.Subsequently,in order to restrict the development of the real estate bubble in Fuyang,an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the real estate bubble in Fuyang began.Seven factors that are most likely to affect the real estate bubble in Fuyang City were selected,and the grey correlation analysis was performed to obtain the main influencing factors.The conclusion shows that the sales area and the amount of real estate development investment are the main factors affecting the real estate bubble in Fuyang.Finally,based on the research results,this article puts forward policy recommendations for the healthy development of Fuyang's real estate market from four aspects: macro-control of land,restricting speculative demand,improving affordable housing,and strengthening market monitoring.