Study On Index System Of Real Estate Bubble

The consensus is that the current economic stage of China has gradually become the new normal which shows the inherent power of economic growth is undergoing a fundamental change and China's economic growth is no longer a rapid growth.In this critical period,the importance of the real estate industry in the social and economic life is particularly prominent.The original industry operating status and growth logic of real estate industry is facing a series of challenges while risk prevention and control must be taken seriously.In the case of real estate,there is an important theoretic and practical significance to the in-depth study on real estate bubble and the establishment of a real estate bubble index evaluation system.Real estate bubble is a form of real estate price fluctuations which tends to change discontinuously without any stable cycle and frequency.Real estate bubble,viewed as the career of bubble economy,is one kind of various bubbles.The bubble results from the great difference between the real estate prices and its use value and the departure from the actual users' affordability.There are many factors affecting the price of real estate.Therefore,the problems of whether the real estate market is a bubble and how evaluate the real estate market objectively,scientifically and accurately are worthy of study.At present,the domestic real estate bubble evaluation system is not perfect,and the choice of evaluation index is limited which needs to be further studied and refined.It is an important direction of research to introduce artificial intelligence into the establishment of real estate bubble index evaluation system because of uneasy establishment of accurate mathematical model and the inaccurate research data in the real estate bubble evaluation index system.This paper,starting from solving the practical problems of the real estate bubble evaluation,combining normative research and empirical research methods,systematically studied the real estate bubble index evaluation system and inquired into it theoretically and practically by using the fractal attribute selection technique,ant colony optimization,hierarchical analysis and gray correlation analysis.Specific studies are as follows:(1)summarized the concept and characteristics of the real estate bubble,and pointed out the harm of real estate bubble to the national economy,and expounded some domestic and foreign scholars' theoretical analysis of the causes of the real estate bubble.(2)analyzed the characteristics of the real estate and the contribution of real estate prices.expounded the influencing factors of real estate price,and the influence of the factors on the price of real estate.(3)selected the index of real estate bubble.In order to solve the problems that the subjective factors can not be excluded from the selection of the evaluation index and the construction process of the system and a large randomness in the choice of evaluation index,a method of index system construction based on the fractal attribute selection technique was proposed.Firstly,a wide range of real estate bubble evaluation index set was established,and then the basic index of real estate bubble based on the fractal attribute selection technique was selected after eliminating the indicators that have a strong correlation.Then the evaluation index system was constructed by the relatively independent representative index which can fully characterize the real estate bubble characteristics.Finally,five relatively important representative real estate bubble evaluation indexes were selected such as real estate development investment divived by the whole society investment in fixed assets,the housing price to income ratio,commercial housing construction area divived by commercial housing completion area,commercial housing rental prices to sales price ratio,the growth rate of commercial housing sales price divived by the growth rate of GDP.(4)the weight allocation of the selected evaluation index of the real estate bubble.First of all,different weights were put on the five relatively important representative real estate bubble evaluation index by using the analytic hierarchy process.Then,the relative weight under different resolutions worked out after the calculation of the correlation degree among these five indexes under different resolutions by using the gray correlation method.Finally,the real estate bubble evaluation index system was constructed after the attained result of weight on the basis of reprocessing the weight of the five relatively important representative real estate bubble evaluation indexes by using Delphi method.(5)two kinds of empirical analysis tests are carried out on the real estate bubble index evaluation system established in this paper.First,combined with the basic data of the real estate market of Hefei from 2002 to 2013,the real estate market bubble degree of Hefei was commented from the vertical angle and the annual comprehensive score of each year was presented;then,the more objective evaluation and comparison of real estate development status of each city was proposed according to the basic data of China's provincial capital cities and cities specifically designated in the state plan.Finally,the applicability and accuracy of the real estate bubble index evaluation system in this paper was verified.