Study On The Risk Assessment Of The General Contractor Of International Engineering Project

With the development of integration of economic globalization and the“Belt and Road”initiative,it is a trend for Chinese construction enterprises to go abroad and participate in global competition.Global imbalance has created broad market opportunities.Taking the African market as example,poor infrastructure is a bottleneck for African economic development.In order to promote economic development,Africa has been committed to the development of infrastructure,transportation,energy,water conservancy,communications and other fields.So far,African engineering projects have become the second largest infrastructure market after Asia.With the decades of development of Chinese infrastructure technology,the level of management experience and technology is leading in the world.However,there are many risks in the international infrastructure construction market.Such as long project construction cycle,difference levels in management and technicians and so on.At the same time,the unstable international environment and local policies bring risks to international infrastructure construction.Therefore,on the basis of AHP cloud model risk assessment theory,this paper studies the foreign risks of "going out" in China's construction enterprises as follows:(1)Identify risk sources.Taking international engineering cases and literature references as research objects,the risk factors affecting overseas engineering construction are summarized and the risk list is established.According to risk management method,provide measures for the international engineering general contractor in dealing with overseas risks.(2)Determine the risk weight.Invite experts and scholars in relevant fields to assess the overseas risks faced by the general contractor,establish the risk hierarchy chart of the overseas general contractor,and use the expert scoring method to assign weights to the risks.Then quantitative analysis and risk factors ranking are carried out to determine the impact of each risk factor on the international general contractor and find the key risk sources.(3)Build AHP cloud model evaluation system.This paper uses AHP to synthetically weight the general contractor's risk hierarchy system chart,obtains the risk vector weight,and draws the risk cloud chart by MATLAB software.By comparing with the standard evaluation cloud chart,we can identify the probability of risk occurrence and the degree of impact.(4)Case study.Taking the SOVOLA oil refinery international project in Khartoum,north Sudan as a case study,this paper verifies the practical application of the AHP cloud model theory.By comparing with the cloud model standard cloud chart it is concluded that the risk level of the SOVOLA oil refinery project belongs to a small risk probability.Through the analysis and comparison of the results,it can provide reference for the general contractor to avoid risks.In this paper,the AHP cloud model evaluation system is constructed by improving the cloud model theory with the analytic hierarchy process.By reference to overseas general contractor risk literature,this paper summarizes the risk list of international projects and constructs the risk hierarchy system chart of general contractors.The AHP cloud model evaluation system is helpful for the international general contractor to predict the probability of risk occurrence in advance and provide the corresponding measures to deal with the risk.This paper takes the SOVOLA oil refinery international project as an example,it is concluded that the risk level of the SOVOLA oil refinery project belongs to a small risk probability.The secondary risk indicators are respectively in high probability risk,medium probability risk,small probability risk and small risk probability.According to the probability of occurrence of risk,the strategies to deal with risk are put forward respectively.This paper has a application value.