A Study On The Spatial-Temporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Of The Foreign Trade Development Of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

"Investment,consumption,export" is the troika that drives economic growth.Foreign trade has always been regarded as one of the engines that promote economic development and plays an increasingly important role in the national economy.The Central Plains urban agglomeration firmly grasped the historic opportunity of the “Belt and Road” and vigorously developed foreign trade,which promoted the rapid improvement of the economic level.However,while the rapid development of the foreign trade of the Central Plains urban agglomeration,some problems gradually emerged: the foreign trade development of the Central Plains urban agglomeration was not stable enough,the adjustment of the foreign trade structure was relatively slow,and the import and export trade was dominated by low value-added products The gap in foreign trade among the 30 cities in the Central Plains urban agglomeration continues to widen.Therefore,this paper has a strong practical significance for the empirical analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of the foreign trade development of the Central Plains urban agglomeration and its influencing factors.This article first makes a quantitative analysis of the current situation of the foreign trade development pattern of the Central Plains urban agglomeration,Secondly,from the perspective of time,the qualitative analysis of the import and export commodity structure of the Central Plains urban agglomeration,the geographical direction of foreign trade,the overall differences in foreign trade,the intra-regional and inter-regional and regional differences in risk evolution,and at the same time,from the spatial perspective the urban agglomeration’s foreign trade volume,foreign trade quality,foreign trade dependence,and the spatial evolution of foreign trade’s role in promoting the economy are described andanalyzed.Finally,the spatial measurement model is used to verify whether there is spatial correlation between the foreign trade volume of the central plains agglomeration,and then based on the relevant literature and relevant trade theory as the theoretical basis,combined with the actual situation of the central plains agglomeration,the GDP growth rate and foreign direct investment are selected.,Per capita income,industrial structure,trade dependence,and human capital are the explanatory variables that affect the changes in foreign trade volume.After a series of tests,a spatial Dubin model with a fixed effect is established.Finally,on the basis of the above empirical analysis,relevant policy recommendations are put forward.This paper mainly draws the following conclusions through empirical research on the analysis of the evolution of the foreign trade development pattern of the Central Plains agglomeration and the influencing factors:First,the structure of the import and export commodities of Central Plains is still dominated by low value-added products,and the structure of import and export products needs to be optimized.Second,the overall development trend of foreign trade in the Central Plains urban agglomeration is good,but there are huge differences between cities in terms of foreign trade volume,foreign trade quality,trade dependence,and the role of foreign trade in promoting the economy.Thirdly,from the perspective of regional structure,the use of indicators such as standard deviation,coefficient of variation,Theil index,and Gini coefficient to analyze the evolution of foreign trade differences between the 30 cities in the Central Plains urban agglomeration found that the overall absolute differences in foreign trade between the 30 cities The relative difference presents a volatile upward trend.This difference is mainly caused by the regional difference within Henan Province and among the five provinces,but the risks brought by this difference have eased in recent years.Fourth,from the perspective of spatial correlation,the foreign trade between the regions of the Central Plains urban agglomeration showed a positive spatial correlation between 2004 and2013,and from 2014 to 2018,the regional foreign trade between the central plains agglomeration showed a negative spatial The correlation shows that the differences in foreign trade among cities in the Central Plains urban agglomeration have further expanded.Fifth,through the establishment of a spatial Dubin model to conduct an empirical analysis of the main influencing factors leading to the foreign trade area,foreign direct investment,gdp growth rate,the proportion of tertiary industry output,trade dependence,and the increase in the proportion of students in the permanent population can Promote the development of foreign trade in the Central Plains urban agglomeration region,in which foreign direct investment,gdp growth rate,and the number of students in the school have a positive spatial spillover effect,indicating foreign direct investment,economic development,tertiary industry development,and trade dependence Regions with higher levels of human capital and higher levels of foreign trade develop faster than ordinary regions.The increase in the proportion of general budget revenue and the output value of the secondary industry has a negative impact on the development of foreign trade among cities in the Central Plains urban agglomeration.