Analysis Of Affecting Factors Of The Changes In The Structure Of The Trade In Goods Between China And Russia

Russia and China have a long history of trade and economic cooperation.Such cooperation has a great potential for development,thanks to the countries'geographic proximity,economic compatibility,high level of interstate relations in the past and present and a multitude of other factors.In recent years,cooperation and development of trade and economic relations between Russia and China are topical issues for both countries,because the structure of the trade is the direct reflection of the economic and trade relations,trade interests of the two countries and their position in international division of labor,thus the study on optimization of trade structure and analysis of affecting factors has an important realistic meaning.In order to strengthen trade-economic cooperation and develop the economy,the governments of Russia and China have taken a number of measures in the trade and financial sphere.At this historical stage,when Russia faces challenges and instability associated with political and economic constraints,the strategic partnership with China is the support and guarantee of stable development and cooperation of the countries.The article analyzes the key stages in the development of Russian-Chinese trade and economic relations,which include periods of both active growth of cooperation and cooling of relations.Particular attention is paid to the current stage of Russian-Chinese trade,as well as a number of features related to the commodity structure of the foreign trade turnover of Russia and China.The article presents information on Russian-Chinese trade for the period of 1992-2017,which reflects the dynamics of the Russian-Chinese foreign trade turnover and the commodity structure of two countries' export-import operations,including 21 categories and 97 chapters' goods.Even though much has been achieved and cooperation between China and Russia has been strengthening,some issues remain unaddressed,including:the current bilateral trade structure,which is unsatisfactory for Russia.The narrowing of Russia's foreign trade specialization associated with the predominance raw commodity goods export over finished goods export and the purchase of high-margin products,the negative balance of Russia's trade and its insignificant share in China's trade with its main external partners.The need to ensure equal cooperation between Russia and China,as well as to intensify the work aimed at creating competitive industries,focused on the export of finished products is underlined in the article.The article investigates the problems,which exist in the development of trade and economic relations between Russia and China.The article analyzes the factors influencing the change in the structure of trade turnover between China and Russia.Using the method of empirical analysis,this article investigates the influencing factors of the commodity structure of trade between Russia and China,mainly from the direct investment,capital labor ratio,technological progress index,etc aspects.The results show that the main factors affecting Russia's export trade structure to China are the accumulated amount of China's direct investment in Russia,the capital labor ratio,the proportion of R&D expenditure,and the main factors affecting Russia's import trade structure to China are Russia's GDP,capital labor ratio,R&D expenditure and patent authorization.From the export model,the symbols of explanatory variable coefficients in the model are all positive,it's indicating that the selected influencing factors have positive correlation with the structure of trade goods between Russia and China.Therefore,the growth of these influencing factors can promote the optimization of the structure of trade goods between Russia and China.Its influence is in order:China's direct investment in Russia,Russia's labor capital ratio,and R&D expenditure.From the import model,the main factors that affect the import of Russia machinery goods from China are Russia's GDP,capital labor ratio,R&D expenditure and the number of patent authorizations.Russia's GDP and capital labor ratio all contribute positively to Russia's import of China's machinery goods.The R&D expenditure and the number of patent authorizations are negatively related to the proportion of machinery imports.It can be seen that the factors affecting the import and export structure are not the same.Thus,the article formulates the tasks of optimizing the structure of trade turnover between China and Russia,as well as proposes some improvement strategies that can give a new impetus to the development of Russian-Chinese trade and economic relations.