Research On The Measurement,causes And Policies Of China’s Real Estate Market Bubbles From The Perspective Of Macro-control

Since China’s reform and opening up in 1979,the government has always attached importance to the use of fiscal policy and monetary policy.To improve the country’s economic level,a variety of policy measures have been adopted in social and economic activities to promote the steady and rapid growth of China’s economy.In recent years,the realty industry has also maintained rapid growth for many years,becoming the important industries for China’s social development that influencing the operation of the national economy.Because real estate prices remain high growth rate,the real estate market bubble of the research has important influence on the normal operation of the national economy,once the bubble burst,it will be a disaster for countries,so we should put more attention to the rationality of property-value,and many scholars focus its attention on whether the real estate market bubble.Therefore,no matter in theory or in reality,our country should strengthen the economic analysis and risk prevention of the real estate market bubble.Based on the situation of the real estate market,this paper refers to relevant literatures at home and abroad,and takes the supply and demand theory and market failure theory of the real estate market as the theoretical basis.The research contents are mainly divided into three parts.The first part mainly measures the bubble value and degree of China’s real estate market.The second part mainly is the cause analysis of the macro-control policy to the real estate market bubble.The third part is the policy measures to solve the real estate market bubble.In reference to a large number of literature research and considering the operability of data,this paper measures the real estate market bubble index from 1999 to 2017,including five single parameter analysis,commercial housing price growth rate/GDP growth rate,construction area/completed area,investment amount of the real estate market/the aggregate investment of total fixed asset,housing-price-to-income ratio of China.loan amount of real estate enterprises/loan amount of financial institutions.This part constructs hierarchical analysis matrix and the variation coefficient method to calculate the weight of each index,and comprehensive index method is used to draw our country real estate market bubble already exists,but it has not reached the degree of severe bubble.Since the macro-control of the Chinese government plays a crucial role in the real estate market,the paper analyzes the formation mechanism of the real estate market bubble from the following three aspects:fiscal policy,monetary policy and expectation,and then by using Eviews9 software to test the stationarity of sequences,correlation analysis and co-integration.The results show that land transferring fees,M2 growth rate and expectation have a positive impact on the bubble of China’s real estate market,and the 1-5 year loan interest rate has a negative impact on the bubble of the real estate market.Finally,the paper concludes that the government should improve the land transfer evaluation system to achieve effective land supply,improve the supervision system and establish diversified investment and financing mechanism;establish the information consulting platform,strengthen the supervision of media operations,so as to promote the public to form reasonable expectations.