Research On The Spatio-temporal Linkage Mechanism And Verification Of Housing Price Bubble And Real Estate Financial Risk

As an important pillar industry of my country’s national economy,the real estate industry plays an important role in the process of China’s GDP growth.The rapid development of the real estate industry has prompted excessive speculation in the real estate market,resulting in rising housing prices and expanding housing price bubbles.With the current housing price bubble expanding to a certain extent,the real estate market will be severely impacted by changes in the macro environment such as the downturn of the macro economy and the disappearance of demographic dividends.Since the real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry,such shocks are likely to lead to financial risks in real estate,and even affect the healthy and stable development of the social economy.Therefore,under the current macroeconomic background,study the relationship between housing price bubbles and real estate financial risks,systematically explore the regional linkage mechanism between the two,and empirically test the degree of spatial-temporal linkage between the two,and discuss the heterogeneous response between regions It has important theoretical and practical significance.This paper systematically studies the spillover effect of inter-city housing price bubbles under the influence of monetary policy and the temporal and spatial linkage between housing price bubbles in real estate market and real estate financial risks.Firstly,it defines the concept of housing price bubble and real estate financial risk respectively,and expounds the related theories of housing price bubble and real estate financial risk.Secondly,construct housing price bubbles and real estate financial risk indicators,measure the housing price bubbles and real estate financial risks in 28 large and medium-sized cities,describe the linkage mechanism between housing price bubbles and real estate financial risks,and further analyze the impact of monetary policy in different regions.The heterogeneous response presented by the real estate market in different regions and the linkage relationship between the real estate markets in different regions.The study found that the impact of money supply has a significant impact on the housing price bubble in all cities.The more developed regions are less susceptible to the impact of money supply shocks and lead to real estate financial risks due to the more developed financial industry.Central and western cities are more vulnerable to currency.Supply shocks lead to real estate financial risks;when the housing price bubbles in first-tier cities and cities in the eastern region are impacted,the spatial spillover effect on housing price bubbles in other cities and the impact of real estate financial risks are more obvious.The research conclusions are of great significance for better understanding the risk contagion mechanism of housing price bubble and financial system and optimizing the monetary policy control mechanism.Finally,according to the theoretical analysis and research conclusions of this paper,in view of the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy on the real estate market,and the inter-regional linkage between housing price bubbles and real estate financial risks,some targeted countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.Healthy development has certain practical significance.