Research On Credit Risk Management Of Individual Housing Loan Of Agricultural Bank Z Branch

For commercial banks,credit risk originates from credit business,which is caused by false promises or breaches of contracts in various links of capital acquisition,use and repayment.With the rapid development of the real estate market,the development of individual housing loan business of commercial banks is accelerating,and the corresponding credit risk is also increasing gradually.Especially in recent years,the frequent regulation policies for the real estate industry have also brought new challenges to the development of individual housing loan business.In the three years from 2016 to 2018,the number of hours for housing loans increased from 2.207 billion to 3.374 billion,with a growth rate of 52.88%.According to the data as of December 31,2018,Z Branch of Agricultural Bank accounted for 14.78%of the market share of individual housing loans in Z City,ranking fourth among the four major banks.On the one hand,it confirms that the activity of the real estate market in Z city is getting higher and higher during this period,and consequently the house price is also rising.On the other hand,it cannot be separated from the establishment of a special individual loan center and the establishment of a individual housing loan credit team by agricultural bank Z branch in 2016.However,compared with the system,according to the statistics of December 31,2018,the balance of the individual housing loan concerned category of Z branch reached 39.87 million yuan,accounting for 1.20%,and the non-performing loan category reached 36.66 million yuan,accounting for 1.10%.Compared with other secondary branches of ABC,there is still a big gap.Although on the surface,the non-performing rate of individual housing loans is not high,but this has a great relationship with the issuing base of individual housing loans in recent years,which cannot hide the real loan risk.To improve the risk management level of individual housing loans is an inevitable requirement to maintain the development of the real estate market and promote the stable economic development,and it is also an urgent choice for ABC Z branch to improve the risk management level and reduce the credit risk.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the risk management level of individual housing loan of Z branch and avoid high credit default rate while rapidly developing related businesses.The credit risk of the borrower is the main risk point of the individual mortgage business.How to identify and measure the credit risk of the borrower and reduce the non-performing loan ratio from the source plays a crucial role in improving the asset business income of commercial Banks.This paper defines the risks of individual housing loans from macro and micro levels respectively.There are mainly macro-level market risk,micro-level credit risk and operational risk.Then elaborated the individual housing loan risk management research theory foundation separately.LTV theory at macro level,information asymmetry theory and principal-agent theory at micro level.Lay a solid theoretical foundation for the practical analysis of risk management below.Based on the current situation of the individual housing loan business of agricultural bank Z branch,this paper analyzes the real estate market situation of Z city and the development of the individual housing loan business of Z branch,and summarizes the market risks faced by the individual housing loan business,including the risk of falling house price and the risk of vicious competition in the same industry.Operational risks mainly include the risk that the credit investigation post fails to make due diligence,the risk in the process of loan approval and issuance,and the risk generated in the process of post-loan management.The credit risk mainly includes the loan risk caused by the borrower's income level,the credit investigation status is not true and the developer deals with the false mortgage loan,the project is unfinished.The necessity of research on credit risk of individual housing loan business of Z branch is expounded.This paper focuses on measuring the credit risk of individual housing loan of Z branch.Firstly,the measurement of the loan score card model currently used by Z branch is elaborated,and then a questionnaire survey is conducted to investigate the key factors concerned by the credit personnel of Z branch.The survey results show that,except for some new employees of Z branch who are not clear about the concept of credit model and system,credit personnel are basically qualified in their cognition of the bank's model.Relevant credit personnel focus on factors such as the borrower's credit record,occupation,transaction flow,down payment ratio and interview situation,which tend to ignore the borrower's educational level and the borrower's marital status.And USES Z branch of the results of the actual data and survey found the key factors,using Logistic regression model analysis,found that credit registries default number,occupation,downpayments,marriage situation has significant influence on default rates,water,education level and the interview is the impact on the borrower default rate is not significant,can provide reference for Z branch related business.In view of the problems existing in the credit risk management of individual housing loans in agricultural bank Z branch,this paper puts forward suggestions from the perspective of internal credit risk prevention and control measures and the improvement of external credit evaluation system.The internal measures mainly include the establishment of the whole process assessment and evaluation mechanism,the regular adjustment of risk assessment and calculation model,the strengthening of pre-loan credit audit and the attempt to launch innovative housing loan products.Then,from the whole macro level,according to the current situation of credit evaluation mechanism,put forward to accelerate the integration of individual credit data,strengthen the construction of information communication mechanism,improve the credit legal environment.