Empirical Study Of The Credit Risk On Individual Housing Mortgage Loans

The credit risk is the most important and basic risk among the riskes of house mortgage loan. The term and many uncertainty factors of house mortgage loan determine that the credit risk will exist in long term. Therefore, commercial bank must keep away and contral the credit risk of house mortgage loan firstly.This article summarize the researching literature of credit risk of house mortgage loan, define the house mortgage loan and credit risk, introduce researching of the risk root of house mortgage loan, introduce the theory of option and the consumer optimal choice theory and the state transition theory of house mortgage loan and the rational and force breach theory, at last, introduce the positive research achievements of the credit risk of house mortgage loan.In this article, the author selected 10908 data from one commercial bank. After getting rid of variables missed or filled out by mistake. 290 effective normal loan samples and 172 effective default loan samples were obtained, so the total capacity of the samples wasl 462..SPSS13.0 software is used to do Factor Analysis. Logistic model and Discriminant Analysis by using those investigated data. The main conclusions and innovations of the dissertation are as follows:First, the result of average discrepancy analysis indicates that, among selected 13 factors, 9 factors as age, academic level, profession, the tenure of loan, loan value, loan rate, down-payment rate, architectural area, the total value of the house are discrepant for average value of two kinds of loans, 4 factors as gender, monthly income, the repayment manner and available house or future house are not significantly discrepant among the two kinds of loans. This indicates that 9 factors as age. academic level, profession, the tenure of loan, loan value, loan rate, down-payment rate, architectural area, the total value of the house are influential for default, and the other 4 factors are not greatly influential for default.Secondly, the result of logistic model analysis indicates, among the 6 new factor, comprehensive factor, down-payment rate factor, age-profession-the tenure of loan factor, academic level-loan rate factor, gender factor are the critical factors which influences the default, especially the age-profession-the tenure of loan factor and academic level-loan rate factor which exerts great influences on default. This shows that comprehensive factor representative of 4 factors as monthly income, loan value, architectural area and the total value of the house have relatively great explanatory power of default, with every increment of one percent for comprehensive factor, the rate of default chance will increase for 24.5%. Down-payment rate factor only represent one factor as down-payment rate, with every increment of one percent for down-payment rate factor, the rate of default chance will reduce 43.0%. Age-profession-the tenure of loan factor representative of 3 factors as age. profession and the tenure of loan influence the default greatly, with every increment of one percent for age-profession-the tenure of loan factor, the rate of default chance will increase 129.8%.Academic level-loan rate factor representative of academic level and loan rate has more explanatory power for default, with every increment of percent for academic level-loan rate factor, the rate of default chance will increase 92.0%. Gender factor only represent one factor as gender, which has infection on default, with every increment of gender factor, the rate of default chance will reduce 18.9%.Consider that age variable exerts the greatest influence on default, and takes a great weight, and then the 6 variables as profession, the tenure of loan, academic level, loan value, architectural area and the total value of the house. Hence we get the 7 variables which have great explanatory power on default ultimately.