The Impact Of The Sino-US Trade War On The Import And Export Of The Two Countries

Since Trump came to power,the economic and trade relationship between China and the United States has been more and more tense,and trade frictions between two countries have become more intense.In 2018,trade friction between the two countries escalated again and the trade war has broken out.In this context,the purpose of this thesis is to analyze the impact of trade wars on the import and export of China and the United States through theoretical and empirical research,so as to provide decision-making basis for China to deal with trade wars.In this thesis,firstly,the research on Sino-US trade wars in domestic and foreign literature has been reviewed.And then the mechanism of the impact of Sino-US trade wars on the import and export of the two countries has been analyzed through theoretical research.Finally,GTAP model(Global Trade Analysis Modeling)has been used to empirically simulated the impact of trade wars on the import and export of the two countries through four hypothetical scenarios.In the case of non-tariff barriers unchanged,the first scenario is that the United States unilaterally imposes tariffs on all imported goods from China,and the second scenario is that after the United States imposes tariffs on Chinese imports,China implements the same level of tariff retaliation.In the case of tariff unchanged,the third scenario is that the United States unilaterally increases non-tariff barriers on imports from China,and the forth scenario is that China implements the same level of non-tariff barriers retaliation.United States.The results of empirical simulations show that: First,once the US opens a large-scale trade war,whether it is to increase tariff barriers or non-tariff barriers,the imports and exports of two countries will be subject to a certain degree of negative impact.Second,if China takes retaliatory measures,the decline in imports and exports between the two countries will further expand.Third,in terms of macro-economic index,no matter whether China takes retaliatory measures or not,the negative impact of large-scale trade wars on China is greater than that of the United States.