Prediction Of Transplantation Effect Of National Rental Affordability Scheme In Australia

The National Rental Affordability Scheme(NARS)implemented in 2008 has effectively solved the housing shortage problem of low-income groups in Australia.At the same time,from the perspective of supply and demand,the increasing of housing supply has an impact on the prices of market housing.NRAS has played a role in restraining the excessive rise of housing prices.It is necessary to study whether Shenzhen can introduce NRAS plan with good effect in Australia and to predict and evaluate the effect of transplanting NRAS plan to Shenzhen.Firstly,this paper gives a comprehensive description of the NRAS plan,including its development history,subsidies and incentives,calculation methods,operation mode and implementation status.Then it analyses the influence path of institutional environmental factors on the transplantation effect of NRAS plan.It selects the influencing factors from three aspects: institutional environment,economic environment and other environment.Through the synthetic control method of policy evaluation method,the author synthesizes Australian cities into Shenzhen,China.Empirical results show that the implementation of NRAS policy can effectively stabilize Shenzhen’s housing prices under the introduction of NRAS plan in 2008.Besides,the impact is lagging behind,and the effect is more significant after 2012.In order to verify the credibility of the virtual implementation of NRAS policy in Shenzhen,the placebo test and ranking test were carried out.And the results were consistent with those of the difference in difference method.In addition,this paper also selected a case whether Panama’s entry into the WTO impacts its exports of goods and services,further verifying the feasibility of the synthesis control method used in the synthesis of transnational cities and the credibility of the synthesis results.Based on the evaluation of the implementation effect of the pre-judgment,the suitability of introducing NRAS policy into Shenzhen is analyzed from the aspects ofrental housing supply,market housing price supervision and guarantee housing financing construction funds.Finally,from the perspective of government expenditure cost,the NRAS model is compared with the traditional government model of granting rent subsidy to guarantee groups and the government-funded model of building affordable housing.The results further reflect the advantages of the NRAS model.