Research On The Relationship Between Real Estate Price And Bank Credit

Since the housing reform in 1998,the Chinese real estate market has experienced several ups and downs.Real estate prices in the last 18 years increased by 229%.The mortgage became a heavy burden of the generation.The changing policies,the accumulation of risk,constant beating prices,making the real estate research has practical significance.The theoretical part analyzes the interaction mechanism between real estate price and bank credit.The theoretical part analyzes that the bank credit has positive and negative effect on real estate price,and the real estate price has positive and negative effect on bank credit.And the effect of the negative push cannot be analyzed theoretically,this part needs to get the actual results through the empirical part.Status quo of the part is divided into two sections.First of all,this article combs the policy of real estate regulation from 1998 to 2016,and divides into five cycles according to the policy effect.It can be used as a simple point of "encouragement—suppression-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement".Policy turning point is in 2004,October 2008,December 2009 and 2014 respectively.Combined with real estate control policies to analyze the various indicators of the real estate market.Found that real estate prices and real estate control policy cycle coincides with the bank credit data fluctuations and real estate control policy cycle is consistent,but there are different lengths of delay.Secondly,the 1998-2016 is divided into two cycles based on the money supply M2.The turning point is 2009.Before 2009,the growth rate is slow,but after 2009,the growth rate is quick.The turning point of real estate supply and real estate development funds is in 2009.After 2009,the real estate market oversupply trend began to show.The dividing point of real estate development funds is in 2009.Before 2009,the growth rate is slow,but after 2009,the growth rate is quick.In this paper,the dynamic panel model is established with panel data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2002 to 2016,and the relationship between real estate prices and bank credit is explored.In addition to real estate prices and bank credit,the control variables select the land price on behalf of the real estate market supply level,select the GDP per capital on behalf of the demand level.Firstly,the relationship between real estate price and bank credit is analyzed theoretically,and then the empirical analysis is carried out.Through the Unit root test,cointegration test and Granger causality test,the dynamic panel model is constructed.First study the impact of the three regional bank credit on real estate prices in the whole country and the eastern,central and western regions,and then study the impact of the three regional real estate prices on bank credit.The GMM estimation method was used to estimate the model,and the results were examined by over-identification and sequence correlation.Conclusions in this thesis:1.Real estate prices and bank credit have long-term stable relationship,and real estate prices and bank credit are the reasons for each other Granger.2.Bank credit has a positive effect on real estate prices in the short term.The positive impact of bank credit on real estate price is inconsistent in different region.The eastern region has the strongest effect,followed by the West.Real estate prices in the central region are less dependent on bank credit but are more dependent on economic fundamentals.3.In the short term,the growth of real estate prices has a positive effect on the growth of bank credit.The western region is promoting the strongest effect,followed by the middle and the weakest in the east.Finally,three policy suggestions are put forward based on the results of the current situation analysis and the empirical analysis results,and considering the heterogeneity of the eastern,central and western regions of China.