| This paper discusses the huge trade surplus between China and the United States and the change of RMB exchange rate,which has been a hot topic in recent years.Especially,it is more important to explore the impact of exchange rate change on china-us trade under the premise that the trade war between China and the United States has been going on for some time.In this paper,elastic analysis method was introduced in detail in chapter 2,multiplier analysis,income analysis,etc.,these theories will be in later chapters have the effect of analysis tools,the third chapter will use elastic analysis reveal preliminarily the exchange rate change on the influence of sino-us trade,the fourth chapter model is introduced and an empirical analysis of the fifth chapter is inseparable from the theory basis of the second chapter.The empirical part of this paper USES incomplete substitution model and co-integration analysis to study the exchange rate and sino-us trade.After many times of RMB exchange rate system reform,marketization and internationalization gradually,but the true sense accepted by the international community by market supply and demand factors and relatively free of monetary exchange rate system reform began from 2005,so in this paper,after considering the factors in choosing the data,choose the quarterly data from 2005 to 2017,the exchange rate data will also choose two countries GDP as important validation data,through the model validation after the following conclusions: From 2005 to 2017,the RMB exchange rate has experienced a steady period,rise period,double wave and depreciation period,in the world after the subprime crisis,the RMB exchange rate on the relationship between the two countries trade surplus rose,showing a "J curve",and meanwhile the demand elasticity of import and export of beauty and the second chapter is just the opposite of symbols from the elasticity theory,which explains why the appreciation of the renminbi and the condition of the traditional international trade theory is not consistent,did not bring the trade deficit,but the trade surplus.At the beginning,the adjustment effect of exchange rate fluctuations on bilateral trade imbalance is not obvious,but it will gradually emerge over time,which is also the time-lag effect of the "inverted j-curve" introduced in detail later.The author believes that the two countries economic size and different economic system makes massive trade imbalances reason very much,in addition to the exchange rate also need to consider the structural differences of trade between the two countries,the difference of industrial structure,trade policy restrictions on the product and the influence of the difference of statistical caliber,especially the industrial structure of the two countries different results in the structure of trade is one of the highlights of the sino-us trade negotiations,both in America and China's leaders hope to further upgrade China's industrial structure and trade structure,trade structure in our country is as before the export of labor-intensive products is given priority to,The most typical example is "800 million shirts for a Boeing 737".However,China's trade structure is now dominated by large equipment,so the us should not only attribute to the change of RMB exchange rate and China's normal exchange rate policy change,but also consider the differences between the economic structure and industrial structure of the two countries.Looking for the causes of the trade imbalance in a wider range can really solve the trade disputes and balance of payments imbalance between China and the United States.In order to eliminate trump government and hawks,led by Wright jersey and navarro,and the American people misunderstanding and resistance of sino-us trade deficit,China should continue to perfect the exchange rate policy,strengthen the communication and cooperation with the United States,at the same time,adjust the industrial structure,strict protection of intellectual property legislation,to promote science and technology to upgrade the industry in China and foreign trade structure upgrade,from made in China to created in China.In addition,we can also solve overcapacity and trade imbalance between China and the United States by stimulating consumption and expanding domestic demand.But considering the also need careful choice to solve the problem of sino-us trade exchange rate policy,despite international RMB appreciation pressure,but a faster appreciation of the yuan will be adverse impact on the domestic economy,especially the stock market and can produce false prosperity and a lot of capital of the real estate bubble,stock market false prosperity is likely to cause a similar crash in 2015,many people suffer losses,and real estate in recent years,more direct about people's livelihood issues,so need to be careful when choosing the yuan's exchange rate policy to consider the impact on the domestic.In general,our country is in the status of the foreign trade surplus has its historical inevitability,necessity,reduce the trade deficit is short-term demands in the United States,not long-term strategy in the United States,the U.S.negotiators made it clear that the short-term interests,need to China's large purchases of American goods to reduce the deficit,long to "structural change" and the leaders of our country again,also hope that China's trade structure is conducive to China's economic and strategic direction for structural change.May solve trade structural problems will be more conducive to China's economic health and industry transformation and technological innovation,our country has been implementing to earn foreign exchange for the target of the export-oriented strategy no longer adapt to the current situation,because the strategy made a great impact to the domestic environment,and a large number of consumption of resources in China,but also unsustainable development strategy,to build sustainable and healthy development of the economy,sustained growth in China's economic miracle,the need to make the sustainable development of the trade policy. |
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