Research On Financing Gap Prediction Of New Urbanization Construction In Guizhou Province

The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that the Chinese economy has changed from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage,and urbanization is the only way to achieve high-quality development.Based on the literature review at home and abroad,this paper analyzes the financing status of new urbanization construction in Guizhou Province based on Nasem's “S”curve theory,Project zoning theory and Grey system theory.Secondly,based on the statistical data of Guizhou Province in 2000-2017,the Logistic model is used to analyze the urbanization rate of Guizhou Province and to predict the urban population of 2018-2025;Based on the statistics of relevant funds in Guizhou Province in 2007-2017,the gray prediction model is used to predict the capital demand and capital supply capacity of new urbanization in Guizhou Province in 2018-2025,and then to predict the financing gap of new urbanization construction.According to the research conclusions,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the new urbanization construction in Guizhou Province is at a high-speed development stage,and the urbanization rate is growing steadily.The Logistic model is used to predict the urbanization rate of Guizhou Province.The results show that according to the current development speed,the urbanization rate of Guizhou Province will reach 61.94% by2025.Secondly,the changes in urban population and rural population are characterized by this trend.By 2025,there will be the population of 6.415 million urban residents to increase in Guizhou Province.At the same time,there will be 5.58 million people moving from rural tourban areas.The large population of agricultural population will surely bring enormous pressure for the population tolerance and economic carrying capacity of each town.Thirdly,the financing gap for new urbanization construction in Guizhou Province is huge.The capital demand for urbanization construction is far greater than supply.With the acceleration of the new urbanization construction in Guizhou Province,the financing gap is constantly expanding.Fourthly,the new urbanization construction in Guizhou Province has problems such as unreasonable financing structure,narrow financing channels and high financing costs.With the increasing financing gap,it is urgent to expand diversified financing channels and adjust the existing financing structure to ensure the capital demand in the process of new urbanization in Guizhou Province,so as to explore the supply potential of funds.