Influence Factors Study Of Fund Balance Of Basic Pension Insurance For Urban Employees In Hunan Province

In the past ten years,the fund gap of the basic old-age insurance for urban workers in Hunan Province has always existed and has been continuously expanded.This paper tries to reveal the major facts which impact the of Basic old-age insurance for urban workers in Hunan province is balanced,and hence try to offer relative department policy suggestions.Firstly,paper establishes the income and expenditure model of employee endowment insurance fund of enterprises in Hunan Province from 2006 to 2015,applies factor analysis method to measure the influence factors and rank contribution rates of them.The analysis result shows that: the monthly per capita payment base offered the largest contribution rate,and the collection rate of number of active employees participating offered the smallest rate.the per capita pension rate contributes most to the expenditure of pension insurance funds,followed by the number of retired personnel participating in insurance.Moreover,based on the new situation of the reform of China's pension insurance system and the trend of social and economic development.This article sets,the mandatory retirement age,the pension replacement rate,the social endowment insurance contribution rate,tax rate,insurance rate,age of employment,the rate of change of in average wage as variables.The age-shifted population forecasting model is established to predict the future urban population in Hunan Province,and then the fund income model,expenditure model,balance-of-accounts model,current balance forecast model,the balance forecast model for annual income and the current account balance system account under the nominal account system are established to predict the e income and expenditure of pension funds for urban employees in Hunan Province from 2018 to 2100.After that,the sensitivity analysis of fund balances on various influencing factors was carried out.The results of the study showed that changes in statutory retirement age,contribution rates,participation rates,and collection rates reversed with the changes in gap between the fund's income and expenditure have changed in a negative direction.The initial employment age and the rate of change of in average wage,the replacement rate of pension funds,and the gap between fund revenue and expenditure have changed in a positive direction.Among them,the order of Fund balance factors of sensitivity from high to low is retirement age,contribution rate,the pension replacement rate,the participation rate,the collection rate,initial employment age and the rate of wage change.The statutory retirement age be increased by 1 year,the fund balance gap will be reduced by 15.51%.1 percent increase in the replacement rate will induce the fund's balance of payments gap by 7.6%.The pension replacement rate be increased by 1%,the fund balance gap will increase by 4.18%.The participation rate be increased by 1%,the fund balance gap will be reduced by 1.94%.The collection rate be increased by 1%,the gap between fund's income and expenditure will be reduced by 1.62%.The initial employment age be increased by 1 year,the fund's income and expenditure gap increased by 0.87%.The social average wage rate of change was the weakest,the rate of change of wages increased by 1%,and the fund's income and expenditure gap increased by 0.45%.Finally,according to the empirical research conclusions above,we put forward targeted policy measures: first,formulate a reasonable retirement policy and strictly control early retirement;second,construct an effective pension replacement rate self-balancing mechanism;and third,implement the phased reduction of old-age pensions.Insurance contribution rate;Fourth,to achieve more endowment insurance should be guaranteed,should be paid in full;also broaden the pension insurance fund investment channels,increase investment rate of return and harmonize the relationship of the "three pillars" in the pension system.