Forecast And Sensitivity Analysis Of Urban Workers’ Basic Endowment Insurance Fund In China

With the longer average life expectancy, the population of the elderly people is increasing in recent years, the pressure on the payment of basic endowment insurance is becoming ever greater, solving the problem of payments imbalance has become an urgent problem. In order to make a scientific judgment to the balance of payments situation of basic endowment insurance fund, provide decision-making basis for government departments, this paper forecasts the income and expenditure of basic endowment insurance fund for the urban workers in the coming decades, and analyzes the sensitivity.First, setting three kinds of fertilities, forecasting the population by sex and age during 2015-2050 with the prediction method of key factors based on the sixth national population census data in 2010; results show that population aging phenomena is growing, the retired population in 2050 amounted to 553 million people.Then, forecasting the income and expenditure of basic endowment insurance fund with actuarial models; results show that fund gap will appear in the three kinds of fertilities in 2050, the gap of high fertility is minimum but still reach 1.72 trillion yuan.Last, analyzing the sensitivity of the income and expenditure, finding that the fund is most sensitive to the age of retirement, delaying the retirement age will reduce the gap effectively. According to these, this paper makes some recommendations to alleviate the fund gap the proposed policy recommendations to alleviate the basic endowment insurance fund gap:first, relax the family planning policy moderately; second, delay the retirement age properly; third, improve the ability of increasing value.