Study On The Measure Of Real-estate Bubble & Early-warning In Suzhou

The top economist called Xie Guozhong in Morgan Stanley wrote an English research report named《Bursting Property Bubble?》in August, 2002. He indicated that high yield was attracting more and more capital diving into real estate on account of capital overmuch in China. He was afraid that bubbles had appeared in Chinese real estate. Since the advent of this report, all communities, including government officials,famous scholars etc. have written many articles about whether China's real-estate is overheating or existing bubble.The main task of this article is to study whether there is bubble exist in Suzhou's real-estate market from 2000 to 2007. Based on theoretical analysis, the article use the method of indicator-tracing,theoretical-price,statistics-test to measure the bubble of Suzhou's real-estate market. By the means of efficiency-coefficient method, we make empirical analysis on the basic of the foundation of the early-warning system. Finally we get the conclusion that the real-estate market of Suzhou is in the situation of healthy development, basically no bubble. On the basis, we propose some risk-guard control policies to the latent bubble in real-estate market of Suzhou.