| The aging of the population is an inevitable trend in the development of human society,and it is also one of the social problems that are common in all countries of the world today.By the end of 2018,China's elderly population aged 60 and over has reached 250 million,accounting for 17.9 percent of the total population,including 170 million people aged 65 and over,accounting for 11.9 percent of the total population.With the continuous increase of the aging population,the elderly care service industry,which was promoted by rapid aging and exceeding aging,has gradually become an emerging industry that promotes economic growth.In 2013,the State Council issued several opinions on accelerating the development of the elderly care service industry(No.35),also proposed to integrate the development of the elderly care industry into economic and social development planning,special planning and regional planning,and support the construction of old-age service facilities.Therefore,there are practical significance and guiding significance to study the relationship between the elderly care service industry and regional economic growth.Moreover,as the regional linkages become increasingly close and the concept of mutual development is increasingly rooted in the hearts of the people,the growth of the regional economy is not only related to the industrial development of the region,but also to the spatial spillover effects brought about by the development of adjacent regions.The spatial effect of the elderly care industry on regional economic growth is imminent.Based on the theories of spatial economics and public economics,this paper conducts statistical analysis based on the data of elderly care services from the provincial statistical bureaus and civil affairs bureaus.Then using the comprehensive evaluation method and quantitative analysis method,the paper analyzes the correlation between the elderly care service and the regional economic growth,from perspective of the spatial correlation of the aged care service,the spatial correlation of the regional economy and the spatial effects between the elderly care service and the regional economy.Finally the paper proposes some countermeasures for regional coordinated development from the perspectives of cross-regional elderly care services and long-distance elderly care services.The main research conclusions are: First,the elderly care service development index is stable in the time dimension,the gap large in the spatial distribution,and the spatial gap persists in the time dimension.Second,the development of elderly care services industry presents the spatial agglomeration characteristics of regional segmentation.The high-high areas are mainly concentrated in Shanxi,Henan,Hubei and other provinces.The low-low areas are mainly concentrated in Ningxia,Shanxi and other provinces.In most areas,due to the large differences in the development of elderly care service industry,there is no obvious agglomeration effect.Third,the spatial auto-regressive coefficients and the test results of dynamic SAR model and dynamic SDM model,show that regional economic growth has spatial spillover effect and spatial dependence,and under the adjacency and geographical weight,the development of elderly care services has produced a significant positive effect to regional economic growth,but the relationship between the two is not significant under economic weight.Fourth,the effect decomposition of the dynamic SDM model shows that the direct effect of the elderly care services under the economic weight is significantly negative,indicating that China's elderly care service is still in its infancy,and the economic effects of the region are not yet appeared.The indirect effect is positive,indicating that the development of elderly care services in local area produce a spatial spillover effects on economic growth in the surrounding areas.The rise of cross-regional elderly care services and long-distance elderly care services has led to economic growth in the surrounding areas.And based on the above conclusions,it proposes feasible suggestions. |
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