| Since the implementation of housing reform in 1998,the real estate industry has developed rapidly and has become one of the important industries to promote national economic growth.The real estate market is related to people’s housing needs,especially the high housing prices in first-tier and second-tier cities in recent years,making research on the real estate become one of the hot topics of the society.Since the real estate industry is a capital-intensive market,both the housing supply of developers and the housing needs of buyers require the intervention of third-party funds.In the case of a single real estate financing channel in China,bank credit becomes the main source of funds for both supply and demand.Therfor the changes in bank credit will have an impact on the supply and demand side of the real estate market.As far as Sichuan Province,housing price has continued to grow rapidly,especially the economic recovery period after the 2008 economic crisis.Housing prices have experienced a"golden" period,accompanied by the continuous rise of housing prices the bank credit of real estate also grow quikly.However,there are few studies on the relationship between real estate prices and credit in Sichuan Province.This paper is the research carried out in this context.First of all,this paper analyzes the theory of supply and demand equilibrium and the transmission mechanism of real estate credit to the real estate market.In this section,this paper analyzed the new market equilibrium point by the bank credit intervention through introducing the theory of supply and demand equilibrium.Development loans and mortgage loans will have negative and positive effects on housing prices.Besides,through the transmission mechanism of bank credit,the credit expansion and credit crunch are used to have positive and negative influence of housing prices.Secondly,this paper sorts out the current situation of housing prices and bank credit in Sichuan Province,and find that the changes of the two have the characteristics of convergence.Specifically,the housing price and real estate credit in Sichuan Province continued to increase year by year during the decade from 2008 to 2017.Although the inflection point of house prices in 2015 was affected by the "destocking" of national policies,the overall increase of the two remains the same trend.Thirdly,in order to further understand the relationship between real estate credit and real estate prices in Sichuan Province,an empirical study was introduced.This paper selects the average sales price of commercial housing as explained variable,real estate development loans and mortgage loans as the main variables,with GDP and consumer price index CPI as control variables.All data have passed the stability test and use Granger to test causality.The causality was tested with the time series data of Sichuan Province in 2008-2017 and the panel data of 21 cities(states)in Sichuan Province in 2008-2017 were analyzed.Finally,this paper draws two conclusions:(1)Bank credit has a long-term impact on real estate prices,and this relationship will have a positive or negative impact according to the different real estate loans.(2)There are regional differences in the impact of bank credit on housing prices.The first and second class cities with better economic development are significantly affected by mortgage loans,while the third and fourth class cities with slower economic development are significantly affected by development loans.In addition,the level of economic development has a significant impact on housing prices in all categories of cities.Then according to the theoretical and empirical research conclusions,some countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward. |
