Evaluation And Scenario Simulation Of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity In Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone

Land resource is not only the material basis of our existence,but also the precondition of social development.As the population continues to grow,become the inevitable trend of social development of urbanization,a large number of people to cities,promote the rapid development of industrialization,so people to the land,the unreasonable development and utilization of more and more land is becoming more and more serious problems such as pollution and destruction,cause the urban land system under pressure,and even some actual carrying capacity of urban land is beyond a reasonable level.Therefore,in order to achieve the coordinated development of land resources and ecological environment,economic technology and social development,it is necessary to study the land comprehensive carrying capacity to ensure the sustainable use of land resources.The land comprehensive carrying capacity of the whole Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and 6 cities were evaluated,and the future development trend of them was predicted by the system dynamics simulation model.First of all,using literature analysis,summary analysis land comprehensive carrying capacity research achievements at home and abroad,the list is representative of the research;Then,combined with the land use status of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,with water and soil resources,ecological environment,economy,technology and social development of the four subsystems of building land comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation index system,The entropy method was used to calculate the weight of each index,and to evaluate and analyze the current situation and dynamic changes of the comprehensive bearing capacity of land of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone from 2008 to 2016.Then,the land system model of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is established by using the system dynamics software Vensim-PLE.Through the dynamic simulation and prediction of the system model and the optimization of the program,the model that is most suitable for the development of the land comprehensive carrying capacity in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is selected.Finally,the comparison analytic method,on the land use status of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,on the basis of simulation analysis,combined with local actual situation,from the water and soil resources,ecological environment,economy,technology and social development from four aspects,find out the existing problems and put forward the targeted countermeasures and Suggestions,in order to improve the land comprehensive carrying capacity.The results show that the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone of municipal land comprehensive carrying capacity level is relatively low.Municipal land comprehensive carrying capacity under five in different scene simulation,predict the future 10 years land comprehensive carrying capacity change is not the same condition,can be summarized as: in the coordinated development mode,the highest priority mode in economy and environment protection mode generally high,under the mode of resource intensive mode and current situation of the continuation of low.By comparing the real value of some indicators in 2017 with the predicted result value,it is found that the real value of several indicators has the highest consistency with the data under the coordinated development scenario.Through the change of the level of land carrying capacity,the problems of each subsystem are analyzed,and the measures and Suggestions to improve the land comprehensive carrying capacity are put forward,which will provide reference significance for formulating the related land resource planning in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in the future.