Research On Early Warning Of Urban Sustainable Development

In recent years,the process of urbanization in China has been continuously advancing,and the massive accumulation of population and capital has brought new vitality to urban construction and economic development.However,with the rapid development of cities,serious problems such as unbalanced economic structure,deterioration of ecological environment,depletion of resources and deterioration of urban comprehensive environment are unavoidable,which are not conducive to the sustainable development of cities.How to realize the sustainable development of cities is of great significance to the implementation of sustainable development strategy in China.To achieve sustainable development of cities,it is necessary to effectively prevent the urban composite system from deviating from the track of sustainable development in the process of operation and development.Therefore,this paper introduces variable weight model into early warning evaluation system,chooses penalty variable weight in variable weight model,adjusts the weight below a certain penalty level by formulating penalty rules,and then formulates "variable weight" of indicators in corresponding period,which takes into account not only the static weight of urban sustainable development early warning indicators,but also the state value level of each evaluation index.Finally,by calculating the comprehensive early warning index and combining with grey prediction,the comprehensive warning situation of the city is predicted,and the constraints hindering the sustainable development of the city are measured according to the obstacle degree model.Applying this early warning model to Baotou,a resource-based city in Inner Mongolia,this paper explores the sustainable development situation of Baotou from 2007 to 2016 in multi-dimension,constructs an early warning system for urban sustainable development by means of penalty variable weight and grey prediction model,and makes dynamic early warning for Baotou sustainable development system,and puts forward improvement countermeasures and suggestions according to the early warning results and constraints.It provides valuable reference for Baotou and other cities to achieve sustainable development and further improve the early warning mechanism.The results show that:(1)the early-warning model based on penalty variable weight meets the dynamic early-warning requirements for sustainable development of Baotou,and the early-warning results are more realistic;(2)the early-warning level of Baotou from 2007 to 2016 has evolved from "medium-warning" to "light-warning" and the overall level of sustainable development has shown a good upward trend;It is predicted that the warning level of sustainable development of Baotou will be changed from "light police" to "no police" from 2017 to 2019;(3)The most restrictive factor affecting the sustainable development of Baotou is the subsystem of environmental security and resource supply in the future.