| The implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative has increased trading with countries along the route.Trade development has a spillover effect,which not only has spillover effects on current economic development,but also has spillover effects on future economic development.Facing the complicated international situation,it is of greatly significance to explore the impact of the import and export trade of sea goods along the maritime Silk Road in the 21 st century(hereinafter referred to as “Haisi Country”)on China’s economic growth.This study focuses on the impact of the development of import and export trade on China’s economic development,provides a reference for the relevant research on enriching the impact of trade on economic development,comprehensively understanding the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" and enhancing the spillover effect of trade development along the line.The first chapter is the introduction,which is the guideline of the article.Firstly,the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" is taken as the research background of this article,and the theoretical significance and practical significance of the research are explained.Secondly,on the basis of reviewing relevant literatures at home and abroad,this paper summarizes the research status of this direction.Finally,the research content of this paper is proposed,and the main research contents and research methods are briefly explained.The second chapter is the theoretical basis of the full text.It defines some of the main concepts in the article,such as the Maritime Silk Road,foreign trade,economic growth,and the mechanism of the influence of import and export trade on economic growth.The third chapter analyzes the current situation of China’s economy and the status quo of trade with Haisi countries.We collected the data on the import and export trade of Haisi countries and China’s sea goods and China’s GDP data from 2000 to 2017,and conducted descriptive statistical analysis on China’s GDP scale,growth rate,and import and export with Haisi countries.There is a preliminary understanding of trade volume and trade structure.It is found that the scale of GDP has grown exponentially.In recent years,the growth rate has stabilized.The trade of “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” has changed from the trade deficit state before 2013,and the export trade volume has increased year by year.The fourth chapter explores the impact of trade with Haisi countries on China’s economic situation.The VAR model was constructed,and the effects of trade import,trade export and GDP were analyzed by using Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition.It is found that the export and import of China and Haisi countries have a positive effect on China’s GDP,and the impact of exports on China’s GDP growth is far greater than that of imports.The fifth chapter is conclusions and recommendations.It mainly proposes countermeasures and suggestions on how to promote the development of trade with Haisi countries and promote China’s economic growth. |
