The Trade Between China And The Countries Along The "Maritime Silk Road" And Its Impact On China’s Economic Growth

In 2008,the world economic crisis spreaded all over the world,the global economy stagnated and the development stagnated.At the same time,the reform and opening up of our country has also entered the deep water area.It is imminent to change the way of economic development in our country.The "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road " is China’s initiative in 21 st Century.It shows that China is committed to strengthening international cooperation and promoting the common progress of both sides.As a trading power,foreign trade has been Chinese government attention,because foreign trade and economic growth has always been an inseparable relationship,in 2013,China replace the United States to become the first big country in trade,trade’s contribution to China’s economic growth is also growing.At the same time,with the proposal has been put forward,the trade and cooperation between China and the countries of this route will become more and more close.Under the premise of "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road",China’s trade with the countries along the line has become more and more important.Therefore,through empirical analysis,this paper analyzes China’s trade with the "Maritime Silk Road" countries and its impact on China’s economic growth.This article is divided into six chapters.In the first chapter,we introduce the background,significance,content,framework and innovation of the research.The second chapter is the literature review of this article,including(1)Experts and scholars ’research of the "Maritime Silk Road",especially the research on economic significance;(2)Research of China’s trade with the countries along the line;(3)The domestic and foreign experts and scholars’ research on the impact of trade on economic growth.The third chapter is the overview of trade of Chinese with the countries along the "Maritime Silk Road",the first part is the of the history of the Maritime Silk Road and defining the countries along the line,according to the historical division,some experts and scholars on the "Maritime Silk Road" of the related research literatures and data can be found,the countries the Maritime Silk Road are divided into the ASEAN countries,South Asia and the Gulf countries,South Asia including India,Pakistan,Sri Lanka and Bangladesh;Gulf countries including Iran,Saudi Arabia,Kuwait,Oman,Bahrain and qatar.The latter part of the third chapter includes the general situation of trade between China and all countries in the world and the countries along the "Maritime Silk Road" in the past 1993-2015 years,as well as a comparative analysis.The fourth and the fifth chapter is the empirical analysis part,as the core part of this article,the fourth chapter mainly studies whether the trade between China and countrie along the line has influence on China’s economy,by using VAR model,Granger test,impulse response and variance decomposition method.(1)Through the Granger test,this paper draws the conclusion that the import and export of our country and these countries along the line are Granger reasons for China’s GDP growth,but in the long-term,only import have effect on economic growth.(2)Through impulse response analysis,we can see that in the short term,the effect of import is not obvious,but in the long run,the promotion will gradually enhance,and exports will have a certain promoting effect in the short run and long run.(3)The variance decomposition method shows that in the short term,China’s export to the countries along the "Maritime Silk Road" has a significant contribution to China’s economic growth.In the long run,the contribution will be somewhat weakened,while the import contribution will gradually increase.The fifth chapter is mainly about the contribution rate of China’s trade to three regional countries along the "Maritime Silk Road" to China’s economic growth.According to the national income identity,government procurement(G),investment(I)and consumption(C)as control variables,and analyzed by Granger test and regression research.(1)According to the results of Granger test,China ’s import and export with the Gulf States and South Asian countries are Granger reasons for China’s GDP growth,China’s export with ASEAN countries is Granger cause of China’s GDP growth,but imports is not,therefore in the related model,removal of the variable LNM3.(2)The results of regression analysis show that the contribution rate of China’s export and import with the Gulf States to China’s economic growth are 0.14% and 0.06%;The contribution rate of China’s export and import with the Gulf States to China’s economic growth are 0.10% and 0.05%;The contribution rate of China’s export with ASEAN countries to China’s economic growth is 0.12%.The sixth chapter is the conclusion and policyt recommendations,points out the shortcomings in the study.Therefore,this article holds that China should continue to strengthen its trade with the countries along the "Maritime Silk Road" and expand the types of trade products,and actively promote the "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road" initiative in the world,actively carry out the construction principles and realize the common progress of all countries.At the same time,China should also actively seize the opportunity to promote the development of China’s trade,and take advantage of the geographical advantages of the coastal areas of our country,we shoule actively introduce and make use of foreign advanced technology and cheap production factor resources,attracting multinational enterprises and international funds to further improve China’s efficiency in global resources allocation,and build a new market to adapt to the economic development.