Research On The Impact Of Value Added Trade On The Linkage Of Asia-Pacific Economic Cycle

Since the establishment of APEC in the 1990s,the economic development of the Asia-Pacific region has been changing with each passing day.Promoting the establishment of a global multilateral trading system,implementing trade integration,and promoting Asia-Pacific economic and technological cooperation and infrastructure construction have become the common development objectives of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region.The establishment of free trade zones such as China and South Korea has made trade relations between countries in the Asia-Pacific region increasingly close.Therefore,studying the impact of value-added trade in the Asia-Pacific value chain on the economic cycle linkage is of great practical significance for the Asia-Pacific countries to adapt to the tide of economic globalization,establish a mutually beneficial cooperation mechanism,and carry out economic restructuring and common development.This paper is different from existing research on trade impact economic cycles.Firstly,this paper decomposes the added value contained in the Asia-Pacific region according to the World Input-Output Table,and then further uses the added value to calculate the correlation coefficient index.At the same time,this paper uses the filtering method to analyze the economic linkage of the Asia-Pacific region,and The international economic cycle linkage coefficient is measured to clearly describe the current situation of value-added trade and economic linkage in the Asia-Pacific region.Secondly,the impact mechanism of value-added trade on economic cycle linkage is explained by using the international economic cycle model for theoretical analysis from the perspective of vertical specialization.Through the analysis of fact analysis and theory,we have reached the following conclusions: First,during the fifteen years,the export value of Asia-Pacific added value is the same as the overall trend of world value-added exports,and the linkage of bilateral economic cycles in 2000-2006 is enhanced.During the financial crisis,there was a downward trend,and after the crisis,it began to increase.Second,the important part of the trade between the United States,China and Japan as an intermediate commodity in the Asia-Pacific region represents that these countries have a high voice in the Asia-Pacific trade.The central rankings of South Korea,Indonesia and Australia are in the middle and are an important part of the Middle East trade in the Asia Pacific region.The United States and China are the largest exporters of intermediate goods,and countries are mo re dependent on US and Chinese exports of intermediate goods.Third,knowledge-and technology-intensive economies(such as the United States and Japan)have higher status,and resource-intensive economies(such as Russia,Australia,and China)are limited in the value-added trade.The status of the chain is in the middle,and the Asia-Pacific value chain status of the more developed industries such as Mexico,South Korea and Canada is at a downstream level.The value chain status and participation of Asia-Pacific countries are not consistent.South Korea and Mexico have low-level but low participation in the Asia-Pacific value chain.It can be considered that South Korea and Mexico are in the downstream link in the Asia-Pacific value chain.Finally,through empirical analysis at the national and industry levels,the following conclusions are obtained: The stronger the trade value of value-added trade in the Asia-Pacific region,the stronger the linkage between the economic cycles of countries due to the input-output correlation of intermediate goods.The higher the division of labor and the degree of participation in the value chain of the two countries,the weaker the economic fluctuations transmitted through value-added trade due to the “long whip” effect,that is,the weaker linkage between the economic cycles of the two countries.