Study On The Impact Of Housing Price On Household Leverage

In recent years,household leverage in China has shown a rapid increase.According to BIS data,at the end of 2017,Chinese household leverage calculated by GDP is 48.4%,and the average annual growth rate since 2006 has reached 15.5%.Chinese economy has entered a special period of multi-stage superposition,and the downward pressure on the economy is high.The problem of excessive household leverage should be highly concerned.The leverage ratio of residential mortgages is the main force for the rapid rise of household leverage.Therefore,high housing price is an important factor influencing household leverage.This paper studies the impact of housing price on household leverage,in order to provide a theoretical basis for solving the problem of excessive household leverage.This paper firstly combs and summarizes the relevant researches of scholars at home and abroad.Based on the theory of Life Cycle and Income,Family Asset Allocation theory and Consumer Credit theory,this paper analyzes the housing price in China from the perspective of rigidity,improvement and investment housing demand.The impact on household leverage may be raised and corresponding assumptions are made.Then this paper analyzes the current situation of Chinese housing price and household leverage,and finds that Chinese residential housing payment ability is weak,residents will carry out loans to buy houses,and Chinese household leverage is basically consistent with the rising trend of housing price.This paper uses the 2010 and 2014 CFPS data including community housing price to construct two-stage unbalanced panel data for fixed-effect panel Tobit analysis,empirically testing the overall impact of housing price on household leverage,and further studies the difference of the impact of housing price on household leverage by dividing net asset value and sub-region.In order to eliminate the endogenous influence,this paper uses the time of the village/community to use the daily way to the commercial center as the Instrumental Variables of house price to to further test,and draws the following main conclusions: controlling other conditions,the overall housing price has a significant positive impact on the level of household leverage;The impact of housing price on household leverage with different net assets is different.It has a significant positive impact on the household leverage of low net worth families and middle net worth families,but not on the household leverage of high net worth families.The impact of housing price on household leverage in different regions is also different,and it has a significant positive impact on the household leverage in eastern and central regions.The impact on the household leverage in the western region is not significant.Finally,based on the main research conclusions of this paper,we propose relevant policy recommendations from the two aspects of regulating the steady return of housing price,improving the housing situation of residents,comprehensively raising household income,and increasing residents’ wealth.The main innovation of this paper is to propose the time that the village/community will use the daily way to the commercial center as a tool variable for housing price,which can provide a certain reference for the future study.