Heterogeneous Analysis Of Household Housing Wealth Effect Under The Restriction Of Housing Loan Leverage

In the key period of adjusting the economic structure and changing the driving force of economic growth in China,the importance of residents' consumption to economic development is increasingly prominent.How to lead supply innovation with consumption upgrading and create new consumption growth points has become the focus of economic reform.At the same time,the crowding out effect of the rapid rise of household leverage on consumption is more and more obvious,and more than half of the household loans are housing loans.The existing literature pays more attention to the transmission channel and heterogeneity of housing wealth effect,and lacks empirical research of the housing wealth effect under the restriction of housing loan leverage.So this paper studies the heterogeneity of housing wealth effect by adding the variable of housing loan leverage,and explores limiting factors and solutions to consumption upgrade.This paper constructs a three-period micro balance panel data by using CFPS of2014,2016 and 2018,and uses fixed effect model to carry out empirical research to verify the impact of housing wealth on total consumption and consumption structure of households under the restriction of housing loan leverage.The basic research conclusions are as follows: For one percentage point increase in housing loan leverage,the total household consumption will increase by 0.563%,and the proportion of development and enjoyment consumption will decline by 0.083 percentage point;For every 10% increase in housing wealth,the total household consumption will increase by 0.80%,and the proportion of development and enjoyment consumption will decrease by 0.07 percentage point;The positive effect of housing wealth on total household consumption and the negative effect on consumption upgrade increaseswill rise with the increase in housing loan leverage.This paper further divides the samples from three perspectives of income,regional and housing asset structure,and studies heterogeneous impact of total consumption and consumption structure influenced by housing wealth under the restriction of housing loan leverage.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From the perspective of income level,the positive effect of housing loan leverage on total consumption is lowest in middle-income families,and the negative effect of housing loan leverage on consumption upgrade is highest in low-income families;The positive effect of housing wealth on total consumption increases with the rise of income level;The positive effect of housing loan leverage on housing wealth decreases with the rise of income level;The influence of housing wealth on consumption upgrade is positive but not significant in high-income families.(2)From the perspective of regional,the positive effect of housing loan leverage on total consumption and the positive impact of housing loan leverage on housing wealth effect are highest in the East,second in the West and lowest in the Middle;The negative effect of housing loan leverage on consumption upgrade is highest in the Middle,second in the West and lowest in the East;The positive effect of housing wealth on total consumption is highest in the East,second in the Middle and lowest in the West,and the negative effect of housing wealth on consumption upgrade is only significant in the West.(3)From the perspective of the housing assets structure,the positive effect of housing loan leverage on household total consumption and the negative effect of housing loan leverage on consumption upgrade are higher in the families holding one-house;The positive impact of housing loan leverage on housing wealth effect is lower in the families holding multi-house;The positive effect of housing wealth on total consumption is higher in the families holding multi-house,and the negative effect of housing wealth on consumption upgrade is lower.The results of this paper have important policy implications.It is helpful to improve household income and guide consumption tendency;It is helpful to perfect financial system reform and innovate housing and consumer credit products;It is helpful to rationally allocate housing wealth and optimize assets structure;It is helpful to pay attention to regional heterogeneity of housing and adopt differentiated policies.