Study On Bond Default Risk Of Listed Companies

In 2015,the new policy lowered the threshold for issuing bonds.The company issued a large amount of bonds in 2015 and 2016.Bonds issued by the company will see a wave of large maturities and buybacks in 2018 and 2019.However,due to the deleveraging and the new rules of asset management break the rigid cashing,the bonds issued by the company have great cashing risk.There were 127 new bond defaults in 2018.In domestic and foreign researches on the influencing factors of bond default,the whole bond market is often taken as the research unit to study the impact of external factors and internal factors on bond default,while the research on the factors of bond default in different risk stages is less.In domestic and foreign researches on bond default risk measurement,the measurement model of bond default risk is mainly constructed by empirical research method,and the measurement of bond default risk is mainly conducted through financial data and capital market data.Few scholars have studied the internal correlation and logic of the causes of the risk of bond default in China by combining the cases of bond default in China.Therefore,the research question of this paper is:what are the causes of bond default in different risk periods?What is the relationship between risk factors in different risk periods?Shengyun environmental protection is a private listed company and belongs to the energy conservation and environmental protection industry with a strong cycle.In 2018,three short-term financing bonds defaulted.Therefore,this paper selected a large number of defaults and the amount of industry representative shengyun environmental protection case analysis.This paper makes a statistical analysis of the general characteristics of bond default in China and also makes a statistical analysis of the characteristics of bond default in listed companies.Through the analysis of the above characteristics,it is found that the default of bonds is a series of credit risk events,and a case study of shengyun environmental protection with the characteristics can be carried out.Therefore,there are four stages in the analysis of environmental default risk factors of shengyun.The first stage is the risk germination stage,the second stage is the risk accumulation stage,the third stage is the risk highlighting stage,and the last stage is the risk disposal stage.Through the above analysis of the overall bond default and the analysis of the typical case of shengyun environmental protection,the general risk chain of bond default is obtained,and the internal logic of different risk periods is revealed.The research conclusion of this paper is:the macroeconomic downturn industry depression,the fierce competition in the industry caused by policy changes and the changes in the financial environment make the bond default germination,but only through the external factors in the germination period can not completely cause the default.Poor internal management effectively controlled people's risk,aggressive investment and blind leverage and financial fraud gradually accumulated risk.Furthermore,the company's profitability deteriorated and the debt concentration was overdue.External rating agencies downgraded the credit rating and the company was unable to obtain new financing channels,leading to prominent liquidity risks.The company can not meet the liquidity gap through various ways and the company credit failure,which leads to the substantial default of corporate bonds.The theoretical significance of this paper is that foreign scholars mainly build a measurement model of bond default risk through empirical research.This paper classifies the factors of bond default according to different risk stages through case analysis and reveals the internal logic of risk factors among the four stages.The practical significance of this paper is that with the change of China's bond financing environment and policy environment in recent years,the previous research on bond default risk has been unable to fully adapt to the needs of the new environment.This paper studies bond default risk from the perspective of new environment,revealing the internal logic of new bond default risk factors,and providing no new risk identification perspective for bond issuers and investors.