Research Of The Early Warning To Local Governmen Financial Risk And Protection Countermeasures In Jiangxi Province

Since reform and opening-up,our country economy's average growth rate of9.8%,6.5% higher than the average growth rate of the world economy than the same period,the column of the world economic growth,urbanization rate from 17.9%growth in 1978 to 56.1% in 2015,compared with other economies are the characteristics of the rapid development,the land has a pivotal role.Land in our country has played a "starter" and "engine" of the dual role: on the one hand,the local government through the high price of land development of real estate industry to promote urbanization,through the low prices of land investment promotion and capital introduction to speed up the industrialization;On the other hand,through the establishment of land reserve center mortgage financing institutions such as the use of land,huge amounts of money for infrastructure construction.Virtually formed "land-finance-inancial" trinity,the linkage mechanism of hidden risks and crisis,is a great hidden danger for the sustainable development of China's economic future.Over reliance on land finance will produce a series of problems,such as administrative,economic,social and ecological problems,so we need to effectively prevent the financial risks of land.Therefore,this article through to the related literature at home and abroad,the local government is proposed for the first time the land financial risk early warning system and prevention countermeasures,trying to make up for the lack of previous land financial risk quantitative research.In this paper,the unique perspective of financial risk based on land,from the four aspects of administration,economic,social and ecological risk selects 16 indicators to determine the weight of each index by using AHP-entropy method,determining the warning threshold value and warning interval,has formed a set of complete and reasonable land finance risk early warning system,in order to provide a reference and reference for the prevention of land financial risks and promote the sustainable development of land finance.This paper is divided into seven parts.The first part is the introduction,this paper discusses the research background and significance of financial risk of local government land,the research on existing research at home and abroad,the paper expounds the main contents and methods,etc.,through to therelated literature,formed the basic knowledge of financial risk,the local finance land land research status quo of financial risk,and find a method can be used for highway in this paper,we study the purpose of,and possible innovations.The second part of financial risk for the local government land related concepts are summarized,including the concept of land finance and risk concept;And analyzes the cause of local government land the five reasons for the formation of financial risks,including local finance shortage,imperfect tax system,land system is not perfect,the government governance structure defects,rapid propulsion of urbanization,and the current lack of supervision and restraint mechanism.The third part is on the land finance risk early warning system framework was presented.Financial risk early warning system to establish the local government land paper expounds the necessity,function,principle and target,and focus on an overview of the land financial risk early warning system framework,build financial risk to land system,early warning index selection,weight determination,the determination of composite index and warning lights set to introduce the system.The fourth part through administration of land finance risk,economic risk,social risk and ecological risk four aspects to build local government land financial risk evaluation system,selection of local government land financial risk evaluation index.The fifth part for building land of local government financial risk early warning system,determine the early warning threshold value and the early-warning interval,to determine the index weight establishment of local government land financial risk early warning system index and set up early warning signals.The sixth part is the land of fiscal risk in the empirical analysis and evaluation of jiangxi province as the research area,the corresponding conclusions.The seventh part is aimed at the different risk early warning and danger interval corresponding risk prevention countermeasures are put forward.