Research On Financial Resources Mismatch And The Effectiveness Of Forward Guidance

Since the financial crisis,the global economy has entered the stage of deep adjustment with the main content of structural adjustment.The monetary policy of developed countries and economies has gradually shifted from loose to tightening.China is in the new normal stage of the sustained and low speed growth of the real economy,and the effectiveness of macro-control effectiveness of the quantitative monetary policy has been gradually reduced.There is still a lot of space for the Central Bank of China to choose,use and innovate the monetary policy tools.We should focus on the use of forward guidance in China’s macroeconomic control and monetary policy tools.Monetary policy is mainly transmitted to the real economy through the factors that affect the interest rate level of the financial market,the price of assets and other factors to achieve the purpose of regulation.Therefore,it’s important reasons for the effectiveness of monetary policy that whether the operation of the financial market is perfect and whether the transmission mechanism is unimpeded.At present,there is a great friction in China’s financial market,and a new form of mismatch of financial resources has been gradually derived,which has certain influence on the transmission mechanism and execution effect of monetary policy.This paper first analyzes the current situation of the mismatch of financial resources in China,and summarizes the characteristics and outstanding performance of the mismatch of financial resources from three aspects:time,structure and duration.The phenomenon of mismatch of financial resources is revealed by the "three arbitrage structure" which is derived from the interaction between the three parties of commercial banks,shadow banks and local government financing platforms.The operation mode of "three arbitrage structure"leads to the maturity mismatch of financial resources,and its final investment leads to the structural mismatch of financial resources.Secondly,we theoretically analyze the influence of the mismatch of financial resources on the transmission mechanism and implementation effect of the forward guidance,and conclude that the effectiveness of forward guidance under the environment of mismatch of financial market resources in China.In addition,we empirically build an DSGE model to describe the credit creation mechanism and regulatory arbitrage mode among financial institutions,which are cross market,cross subject and nested,and put the "three arbitrage structure" articulation into the DSGE framework.It is concluded that the"three arbitrage structure" under the mismatch of financial resources is an important factor that restricts the effectiveness of forward guidance,and is also a major obstacle to the transmission of monetary policy.Finally,on the basis of the above conclusions,we put forward policy recommendations from two aspects:one is strengthening the micro regulation and macro regulation of the "three arbitrage structure",one is introducing and using forward guidance in China.Improving the effectiveness of forward guidance,enriching China’s monetary policy tools,and improving the macro regulation and control system.