Analysis Of Expectation Management Of Chinese Macroeconomic

Expectation management as an innovation development of the theory and practice of macro-control, which through effective guidance, coordination and stable social expectations pursue the effect combination of the utility maximization and the side effects minimization of economic policy. Expectation management originated in the 1950s,and formed in the beginning of this century. In recent years, It becomes the theoretical support of "unconventional" economic policy represented by quantitative easing and prospective guidance and takes the spotlight at dealing with the global recession and the continued weakness of macroeconomic regulation and control practices triggered by the US subprime crisis.According to the reality and characteristics of the economic development in our country,The Chinese government also launched a Chinese version of "expected management" initially formed in "interval control, directional control and discretion control" as the connotation of the new ideas of macroeconomic management by range, raised the target level of forward guidance. Through the practice of monetary policy to achieve the expectation management, based on the actual situation in our country and promoting the construction of Interest Rate Corridor mechanism practise of forward guidance and achieve the expectation management effect. While focusing on achieving the expectation management through monetary policy, and actively expand the area of expectation management coverage. Fiscal policy, industrial policy, regional economic policy have been included in the scope of the expectation management.Based on the literature review of the expectation, expectation theory and expectation management of monetary policy, revolving macroeconomic expectation management related theory system research, and the theory of expectation management model, the measure index and the actual measurement are discussed in this paper. The exploration and development of the combination of China’s macro-control and the expected management also be discussed in the paper. By building the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model embedded in the News shocks. using China’s macro-economic data from 1999 to 2015 for the empirical analysis to the News shocks and macro economic fluctuations, On the basis of the multi-types of news shocks of macroeconomic on the transmission mechanism, Which can provide more than 60 percent of China’s macroeconomic fluctuations explanation. Thus given a response to the need and possibility for implementation of expectation management, set the monetary policy expectation management in biochemical model further.Through the numerical simulation, obtained the conclusion of the effectiveness of the expectation management.In order to provide a referential experience for expectation management construction further, This paper revolves around the core tools of the implementation of the exception management of the main countries, which is Forward-looking monetary policy guidance. Under the premise of the system introduced the forward guidance for the implementation background, the basic theory and policy,and conducted a systematic comparative study to the United States, Japan, the European Union forward practice. Then summarized the experience and Inspiration of the implementation of exception management in foreign countries Finally, this paper puts forward more comprehensive and systematic policy suggestions on the implementation of exception management in our country.