A Research Of The Forward Guidance Expectations Management Of The New Zealand Reserve Bank And The Riksbank

New Zealand and Sweden are inflation targeting countries,and the central bank takes price stability as primary goal.Since the end of the 20 th century,the Central Bank of New Zealand has been publicly releasing the forecast of monetary policy interest rate path.Since then,the central banks of inflation targeting countries such as Sweden,Norway and the Czech Republic have also adopted this form of forward-looking guidance measures.In the economic crisis of2007,facing the dilemma of zero interest rate,forward-looking guidance have been more widely and diversified applied all over the world.The central banks of the United States,Japan,the United Kingdom,the euro zone and other countries and regions have successively adopted forward-looking guidance with different degrees of commitment to manage the public’s interest rate expectations and inflation expectations,so as to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy and stabilize the economy and financial markets.Forward looking guidance is an important tool for the central bank’s expectation management.The study of the expected management role of the central bank’s forward-looking guidance can provide an important reference for the expected management of China’s central bank.Based on the forward-looking guidance and the relevant theories of the central bank’s expected management,and on the basis of combing and summarizing the relevant literature research results,this paper expounds and analyzes the path and mechanism of the role of forward-looking guidance in expected management,and takes New Zealand and Sweden as the research objects.Based on the central bank’s monetary policy report data and market forward interest rate data,this paper adopts descriptive statistical analysis,regression analysis and comparative analysis methods,from the two aspects of interest rate expectation and inflation expectation,this paper studies the expected management role of the forward-looking guidance measure of the central bank’s monetary policy interest rate path prediction,and verifies whether the two countries have strengthened the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations,improved the predictability of monetary policy and improved the term structure leverage of medium and long-term interest rates through the forward-looking guidance of policy interest rate path prediction.The results show that: in terms of inflation expectation management,the anchoring degree of long-term inflation expectation in the two countries is not high,but the use of forward-looking guidance by the Central Bank of Sweden do improve the anchoring of medium and long-term inflation expectation in the markets;in terms of interest rate expectation management,the forward-looking guidance measures of the central banks of the two countries have played a positive role in improving the predictability of policy interest rates and the leverage of medium and long-term interest rate structure to a certain extent.At the end of this paper,according to the conclusions of the previous theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper summarizes the experience of the existing international practice of forward-looking guidance,combined with the current situation and shortcomings of China’s central bank’s expectation management,and puts forward the policy enlightenment for the application of forward-looking guidance in China,in order to strengthen the framework of China’s central bank’s expected management and improve the ability of China’s central bank’s expectation management.