Research On Regional Financial Risk Of Shanxi Province Based On Macro Balance Sheet

Driven by the structural reforms on the supply side,China's economic situation is stable and moderate,but complex and severe.As a resource province and an old industrial base in China,Shanxi Province has experienced a wide range of fluctuations in the price of coal and other resource-based products in recent years,and the lack of endogenous growth momentum.Coupled with the complicated economic situation,financial risks are gradually rising.This makes the existing risk measures less adaptable and financial risks are increasing.It is imperative to analyze the economic development in the region and take corresponding measures.Most domestic and foreign scholars' research on macro-level financial risk at the national level is based on the comprehensive analysis of macro-balance sheet,but the regional level is limited by data and methods,or the application of equity analysis method.In the macro balance sheet study,only the one-sided indicators represent the risks from the government and household sectors.Most of them only compile the book and contingent equity balance sheets of the financial sector and the corporate sector,but detailed and in-depth analysis of government departments and households has not been conducted.Furthermore,there is no a priori practice and results on the balance sheet of Shanxi Province and the balance sheet of various economic sectors in the province.The risk to Shanxi Province only stays on qualitative analysis,lacking scientific and quantitative research,and The actual economic development of Shanxi Province is not deeply connected.Therefore,this paper uses the macro-financial engineering method to compile the book and contingent equity balance sheets of non-financial enterprise departments,financial departments,government departments and household departments in Shanxi Province.Through the scientific refining of risk indicators,the risk structure,term maturity and solvency of the economic sector in Shanxi Province during economic transformation will be analyzed,and the macro-financial risk evaluation index system of Shanxi Province will be further established.Secondly,according to the refined risk index,the Shanxi financial risk index is fitted to evaluate and predict the regional financial risk in Shanxi Province.Finally,based on the perspective of risk and benefit,calculate the macroeconomic capital of each department,and then analyze the macroeconomic capital allocation among various departments to provide suggestions for the economic transformation and development of Shanxi Province.The study found that the regional financial risk of Shanxi Province increased slowly in 2007-2017 with a phased adjustment.The origin and rise of financial risks are closely related to the economic environment,guiding policies and the development of resource-based industries.The risk of asset mismatch in the financial sector is severe and profitability continues to decline.The long-term debt burden of non-financial corporate sectors is heavy,and the risk of maturity mismatch and asset mismatch is becoming more prominent.The overall risk of government departments and households is low.However,as the ultimate bearer of financial risks,government departments have a higher risk of default.In order to prevent financial risks in advance,all departments should extract macroeconomic capital to deal with risk exposure.Among them,the non-financial enterprise sector has the largest proportion of macroeconomic capital due to its high risk and imperfect risk management measures and insurance policies.