| The subprime crisis made the global economy go through a baptism of risk. It becomes a realistic task on how to avoid the happen of the crisis or how to get advanced warning.Macroeconomic financial risk takes the country and departments concerned with macroeconomy as the risk subjects. It also pays attention of uncertainty of future value from the risk subjects'assets and payment risks from apparent or recessive debts. The macro-financial risk has direct relations with the financial crisis, and the research of macro-financial risk's quantification is prerequisite to set the warning of financial crisis. Our country is opening up greatly and the risk of financial crisis is increasing gradually. However, the research of risk quantification, especially research of suitable macro-financial quantification model, is backward relatively.The paper takes the macro-financial risk as subject and divides our country's macroeconomy into family, enterprise, finance and public departments. The paper also sets the macro-financial risk frame of four departments based on contingent claims analysis. The paper proves its feasibility from the empirical analysis from 2002 to 2008. its main procedures are as follows:First, it introduces the definitions of macro-financial risk. Elaborating the previous researches of scholars in China or outside, it compares and analyzes the main analyzing frame and provides the research procedure of contingent claims analysis.Second, it analyzes the division of macroeconomic departments. From traditional balance sheet to risk adjusted balance sheet, it sets up balance sheet structure of four departments macroeconomic system, analyzing the macro-financial risk conductor based on balance sheet.Third, it elaborates the basic principles of contingent claims analysis, concluding measures of macro-financial risks.In the end, it makes empirical analysis to our country's macro-financial risks from 2002 to 2008 by using the analyzing framework. |
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