Research On Macro Financial Risk Of Guangdong Province

With financial liberalization and economic globalization accelerates, the global financial system is also gathering, the inherent instability of the financial risks continue to enlarge. Throughout the centuries the history of the world economic and financial development, all countries enjoy the benefits of rapid economic growth but also bear the pain of economic recession, financial crisis, in the overall economic development process.The outbreak of the financial crisis in the world is more and more frequent, which demands a more sufficient risk management system. There are lots of Micro-level studies on financial risk, based on credit risk, operational risk, interest rate risk, currency risk, etc., various phenomena in different types of financial risk from risk identification to risk prevention. but we have to think When increasing the depth direction of economic and financial development, when the financial activities become more complex and comprehensive and when the micro-level risk analysis and management is easy to fall into the one-sided, not of an economy, a country, a regional financial, then it can not propose a comprehensive integrated and effective risk identification and prevention measures. Therefore, the rapid development of economic and financial world, presents a constant challenge, we must focus on the macro financial risk analysis and management.China’s financial system is in the marketing and the internationalization process, which means interest rates, exchange rate liberalization and free movement of capital, it will bring the corresponding financial risks. Therefore, measuring and managing macro-financial risks, allocation of resources to ensure that the financial system functions effectively, is very important. The traditional model of macro-financial risks due to financial concerns is insufficient, so measure and manage the macro-financial risks is not so satisfying. In this context, macro-financial engineering provides new ideas to manage macro-financial risks.This study follows the the basic idea of macro-financial engineering and financial risk management, from a macro-financial risk analysis of the basic concepts, metrics and indicators. The basic concepts of macro-financial risks related to the main definition of the concept, and research methods of analysis of macro-financial risks, including risk identification, measurement, etc., and analysis of macro-financial risks of Guangdong Province.At last discuss macro-financial risk management and preventive measures of Guangdong.This study centimeters six chapters, and is organized as follows:Chapter1is an introduction, which gives a detailed description of background and significance of the sdudy on macro-financial risks of Guangdong Province, macro-financial risks and related concepts were defined, and then introduced the full text of research methods and ideas, and research the basic framework.Chapter2is the literature review, including the financial stability and financial security, macro-and micro-prudential supervision, macro-financial risks, financial risks of Guangdong Province. Domestic and foreign literatures were collected, including the major research perspectives, research methods and conclusions, and finally make a brief evaluation.Chapter3is the theoretical basis and methods of the full text studies. Before the analesis of macro-financial risk of Guangdong, a detailed study of the theory of macro-financial risks and methods of system was gived, but some innovative and adjustments were made to fit the macro-financial risk analysis of Guangdong province better. Detailed analysis of the basic theoretical foundation and methods include, balance sheet approach to macro-balance sheet approach to the study of macro-financial risks, and introducing option pricing theory to the calculation of assets, liabilities, equity or market value, then the economy is divided into the public sector, financial sector, corporate sector, household sector and other four departments, and then introduced the risk of macro-financial research methods of each department. To compensate for the above lack of theory and analysis, thematic analysis of the introduction of this special department to Guangdong’s economic and financial characteristics of flavor and start to do more in-depth structural analysis to fully display the macro-financial risks of Guangdong Province, revealing local characteristics of the macro-financial risks to make a more conducive macro-financial risk management practices.On the basis of the theory and methods of Chapter3, Chapter4gives a more comprehensive analysis, including expansion of Guangdong Province, the description of macroeconomic and financial profile, and then from the external economic environment, the public sector, financial sector, business sector, household sector and other departments to start a comprehensive analysis of the macro-financial risks of Guangdong Province, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis were combined, the final part of a detailed analysis of macro-financial risks of import and export trade of Guangdong Province.Chapter5is an in-depth analysis and research of macro-financial risks of Guangdong Province. In order to make research more practical significance, a few representative cities of Guangdong were selected to make macro-financial risk analysis, and preparating the macro-financial risk evaluation index system. Then making qualitative analysis of the status and rank the cities on the macro-financial risks, in order to ensure macroeconomic financial stability and security of Guangdong.Chapter6gives the macro-financial risk management policy recommendations and concrete measures. First, extracting the macro-financial risk management theory, and then making the right macro-financial risk management measures to Guangdong Province...