Local Government Debt Risk Assessment In Anhui Province

In 2008,in response to the impact of the global financial crisis,China launched the "four trillion" economic stimulus plan.The "four trillion" plan has stabilized domestic economic growth and left a hidden danger to economic development-the explosion of government debt has grown.As a post-development province of the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone,Anhui has maintained a good economic growth momentum in recent years and has made outstanding contributions to the development of local economy.However,with the economic growth,the scale of local government debt continues to expand,and the local government debt risk in Anhui Province gradually emerges,which should cause the relevant departments to pay attention to.Research on government debt has been around for a long time.Early scholars focused on the study of the causes of government debt and explored the relationship between government debt and economic growth.In recent years,especially since 2008,the sovereign debt crisis erupted in Western countries has made scholars Recognizing the importance of measuring government debt risk and producing fruitful theoretical results.However,most studies are based on the national level,and there is little discussion about the risks of local areas(provincial and municipal areas).Based on this,the research in this paper is started.This paper starts from the basic concept of government debt,through the elaboration of the classification of government debt and the necessity of government financing,as the theoretical basis of the thesis;at the same time,it evaluates the commonly used credit evaluation methods and chooses the KMV model as the basis.Secondly,it conducts research on the current situation of government debt in Anhui Province,and studies the scale and management status of local government debt in Anhui Province from the perspectives of debt growth,hierarchical distribution and risk,pointing out the existing problems and potential risks.Next,we enter the empirical preparation stage,introduce the theoretical basis and parameter setting of the KMV model,and make necessary explanations for the selection of the panel regression model to be used in the empirical study.Based on this,we begin the empirical research.In the empirical research,this paper starts from the local fiscal revenue and total fiscal revenue,government debt scale and quota,and constructs three KMV models to measure the local government debt risk in Anhui Province,in order to objectively analyze the local government debt risk in Anhui from multiple angles.Evaluation.The research results show that there is no debt default risk in Anhui Province as a whole,and some areas have serious debt risks,such as Ganzhou,Suzhou,Chizhou,etc.;under the premise of strictly controlling new debts,debt risk will be significantly reduced over time.In order to effectively control the local government debt risk in Anhui Province,it is proposed to control the local debt scale,use the debt stock and balance regional development.