Research On Local Government Debt Risk Assessment In Anhui Province

After the reform and opening up,China's economy developed rapidly,and local fiscal revenue gradually failed to support the demand of local economic construction.Local governments are not able to issue debts independently because they are restricted by the central government.It can only meet its own infrastructure construction by relying on third-party financing platforms to finance debt issuance.Since the implementation of the New Budget Law,the central government has gradually delegated power to local governments,and the financing channels of local governments have been further broadened,and the debt problem has become more severe.However,local governments have not yet established a sound debt supervision system and timely disclosure of debts,resulting in serious accumulation of local government debt,exacerbating the financial burden of local governments and ultimately triggering debt risks.Therefore,it is very meaningful to conduct research on local government debt issues.Based on the current situation of local government debt risk in Anhui Province,this paper studies the debt risk of Anhui Province and local cities by combining the risk assessment system with the KMV model.First of all,the article expounds the background and significance of the topic selection,respectively from the local government debt risk theory,cause,control and quantification of four aspects of the narrative.Then,it introduces the connotation and category of local government debt and risk.Through descriptive statistical methods,the debt level and debt risk of Anhui Province as a whole and among the cities and municipalities are discussed.Then,the risk evaluation Index system is constructed,the debt risk of local governments in Anhui Province is evaluated by factor analysis method,and the risk interval is divided into the risks of various cities in Anhui Province,and then the fiscal revenue of Anhui Province and the prefecture-level cities is estimated by constructing the panel fixed effect model.By substituting the data into the KMV risk default model,the debt default of Anhui Province and its prefecture-level cities in the next few years is predicted,and finally,according to the research results,the overall debt level of Anhui Province is compatible with the economic growth rate,the risk is generally controllable,and the individual cities still need to continue to reduce the risk of debt default and the large space Can accelerate the construction of Hefei economic circle.And put forward a three-point policy proposal to prevent and resolve the debt risk of local governments: first,standardize the financing system,expand the financing channels,second,standardize the local government debt management,and third,establish a sound risk forecasting mechanism.Therefore,the research on local government debt in Anhui Province has certain application value,which helps local governments to relieve the pressure of debt risk and provide reference for the relevant departments to manage debt risk.