Research On Risk Dynamic Adjustment And Optimization Of Infrastructure PPP Project Based On Residual Risk

The PPP(public and private joint venture)model is a "risk sharing,benefit sharing"partnership established by local governments and social capital in infrastructure and public service projects in China.It can effectively alleviate the financial pressure of local government,use the subsidy mechanism based on market to disperse the various risks in the process of construction and operation,and improve the construction and operation efficiency of infrastructure and public service projects.However,during the long franchise period of the PPP project,various uncontrollable and complicated factors are occurring at any time,which seriously affects the benefits of the local government and the social capital,and even can't achieve a win-win situation.At present,the domestic and foreign research results and the traditional PPP project experience help to reduce the risk of the PPP project,but no a mature model or effective criterion has formed to solve the problem fundamentally.In this thesis,to analyze the theory and empirical analysis of PPP project risk sharing,the Residual Value Risk(RVR)is introduced as an important factor in the risk sharing process of PPP project,and the whole life cycle of the project is placed in the scope of study.The risk management of PPP projects is dynamically regulated by using a relatively mature risk management criterion,which effectively defuses the risk of PPP project.The final goal is to establish residual risk dynamic control system and optimization system,so that residual risk can be dynamically controlled and optimized.1.Through reviewing the PPP model,PPP project risk management,PPP project residual risk and other domestic and foreign research results,and drawing on the successful experience of the traditional PPP project risk control,it is found that the current research can't fundamentally solve the project risk in the whole life cycle range.The existing research results and engineering cases can't fundamentally control the shortage of PPP project risk,but they divide the research contents of the thesis into boundaries,provide a method for the thesis research,and constructs the main structure of the thesis.2.The risk of residual risk is defined and identified in the whole life cycle of the project.The control analysis of PPP project risk is carried out by using cybernetics.3.Based on the cybernetics,the concept and content of the risk of residual value are redefined,and the advantage effect of PPP project risk management is analyzed on the basis of the residual value risk.From the perspective of the whole life cycle,the uncertain factors of the risk of PPP project residual risk are assumed and regulated by the method of literature review,and the potential risks are identified and identified by the experience of the traditional PPP project.4.The risk transfer mechanism of PPP project is designed and tested.On the basis of risk transfer mechanism,the risk transfer process of PPP project is analyzed,the project risk transfer in the whole life cycle of PPP project is completely layered hypothesis,and the SEM(structural equation model)is used to verify the hierarchical hypothesis,and the risk transfer mechanism of the PPP project is constructed and perfected.5.The dynamic regulation model of residual risk is designed and tested.The dynamic control model of residual value risk is designed step by step on the basis of system modelingmethod.The design process is as follows:use dynamic control method to design the language program model of dynamic control model,and use Dynamic Causality flow chart to design the flow model of dynamic control model;use transfer function C(s),coupling function O(s)and diffusion function K(s)to design the digital model of dynamic regulation model.Finally,the Vensim simulation software is used to simulate the core section of the Zhuzhou Iron East Road,and the reliability and effectiveness of the dynamic control model are found.The theoretical research results of this thesis complement the shortcomings of the PPP project risk control and optimization,and can effectively manage the risk of PPP projects throughout the life cycle.It can provide an accurate scientific basis for the decision of the government and the private sector,and help the PPP project to achieve "win-win".