Research On The Sub-regional Monetary Cooperation Of Five Central Asian Countries Under The "Belt And Road"

Since the global financial crisis of 2008,the international monetary and financial system with the US dollar as the core has gradually exposed with many problems.So today getting rid of the shackles of the existing international monetary system has become an important trend in the world.In 2013,General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward the "Belt and Road" initiative,which is an important move and strategic concept for China to promote regional economic integration.And deepening monetary and financial cooperation is a significant support for the financial integration of the "Belt and Road" and also an important way to create a new pattern of the international monetary system.As the five Central Asian countries is the largest potential investment area of the "Silk Road Economic Belt",promoting the cooperation with RMB is not only for the regional equilibrium developing strategy of our country,but also is to meet the reality needs of the sustained economic growth in the "new normal" phase,even an effective path to support monetary and financial stability and sustainable development of the central Asian countries.Based on the theory of "optimal currency areas" and Multiple-Currency monetary union,this paper researches on the feasibility,current situation,cost size and relevant influence pathways of the regional currency cooperation between China and the five Central Asian countries,which aims to provide the ideas of cooperation and policy suggestions on establishing a monetary cooperation zone with RMB as the core one and feasible the exchange rate coordination mechanism within the cooperation zone in the strategic process.The main research contents of this paper are: firstly,the relevant theoretical basis of the monetary cooperation cost of the five Central Asian countries and other relevant regions under the "Belt and Road" is elaborated.Secondly,the status quo of the economic and trade and the monetary cooperation between China and the five Central Asian countries is analyzed.Furthermore,it does qualitative analysis according to the optimal currency area theory and economic data.Then regarding that as a theoretical and practical basis,it puts forward a preliminary assumption about the pathway of currency exchange rate cooperation between China and the five Central Asian countries under the "Belt and Road".Next,based on the foregoing qualitative research,OCA index model is established to conduct an empirical analysis.To measure the comprehensive cost of Central Asian currency cooperation with RMB as dominant currency,this paper calculates the bilateral OCA index between China and the five central Asian countries.And the result shows that: under the "Silk Road Economic Belt" of regional economic integration,the monetary cooperation cost of China and the five Central Asian countries is in an overall downward trend,which means the influence of RMB is gradually growing throughout Central Asia.Finally,on the basis of qualitative and quantitative analysis,it analyzes the way and path choice of the monetary cooperation between China and the five central Asian countries under the "Belt and Road",and also makes corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the existing and potential obstacles in the process of cooperation.In conclusion,this paper considers that establishing an optimum currency area between China and the five central Asian countries with RMB as the core one cannot accomplish in an action.However,a solid foundation is being laid for adopting the cooperation between China’s RMB and Kazakhstan Tenge and then gradually expanding to other Central Asian countries.Meanwhile the degree of regional economic integration is also increasing,so the future currency cooperation between China and five Central Asian countries and RMB regionalization in the "Belt and Road" countries and regions is worth looking forward to.