| For a long time,China's financial system is dominated by indirect finance represented by Banks,and the transmission center of monetary policy is in the bank.Since the financial reform,the central bank's macro-monetary policy regulation has turned to indirect and instrumental after the cancellation of the credit plan with the connotation of policy implementation.However,the central bank's market-oriented monetary policy operation is still to stimulate and adjust the size of bank loans.Therefore,this period bank credit channel is still one of the main channels of monetary policy transmission.However,with the increasing proportion of assets represented by real estate,stocks and bonds in the total social capital,the asset price transmission channel of monetary policy becomes more important.Since the reform of the housing distribution system in 1998,the real estate investment and the real estate price have been rising continuously,and the real estate industry has developed rapidly.In China,real estate has strong investment attributes and accounts for a large proportion of residents' wealth.It has the essence of "quasi-financial assets".Especially,under the premise that the size and operation norms of the stock market are not enough to become the main body of the domestic investment market,real estate has become a significant part of the entire asset market.At the same time,the real estate industry,as a pillar industry in China,has a complete industrial chain,including steel and building materials,cement and chemical industry,machinery and equipment,home appliances and other industries,which has spawned a large number of employment opportunities and investment opportunities,and has widely affected other industries.Under the trend that China's monetary policy asset price transmission channel becomes more and more important,based on the property characteristics,industry characteristics and scale characteristics of real estate in the asset market,it is of great practical significance to analyze the monetary policy transmission effect of real estate price.To analyze the monetary policy transmission effect of real estate price,that is,the special role of real estate price in the transmission process of monetary policy,it is necessary to clarify the transmission process of monetary policy in the real estate market.This process consists of two stages: one is the process in which the monetary policy influences the real estate price;Second,whether the change of real estate price affects the process of the realization of monetary policy objectives through absorbing money supply and influencing macroeconomic variables.Therefore,from the perspective of analytical logic,this paper conducts discussion and demonstration based on the above two aspects: first,it analyzes the influence effect of monetary policy on real estate price,that is,whether monetary policy effectively affects the change of real estate price,and whether real estate price is sensitive to or lags behind the impact of monetary policy.This part of the analysis is the important precondition for the following analysis of monetary policy transmission effect,because only when the monetary policy on real estate price,effective affect real estate price changes,real estate prices to conduction of the monetary policy transmission process variables,or analysis of monetary policy transmission effect of real estate prices will be meaningless.Secondly,the paper analyzes the monetary policy transmission effect of real estate price,which mainly includes two parts.First,whether the change of real estate price absorbs money supply and thus intensifies the endogeneity of money supply,thus affecting the control of the intermediate target of money supply;Second,in the process of affecting macroeconomic variables,whether the real estate price changes offset or magnify monetary policy signals,so as to affect the realization of the ultimate goal of monetary policy.Based on the particularity of the transmission effect of real estate price policy,monetary policy should fully consider the offsetting or amplifying effect of real estate price changes on monetary policy.However,it should be pointed out that the central bank's passive money supply will strengthen the endogeneity of China's money supply.On real estate prices cause negative effect on consumption to offset the expansionary monetary policy signal positive effect on consumption,eventually weaken the expansionary monetary policy signals to expand consumption stimulate economic growth effect of monetary policy goals,combined with the result of empirical analysis,should try to use the interest rate is given priority to,regulate the money supply is complementary combination of monetary policy,because the positive impact of money supply has significant effects on prices and easy to cause rising house prices in the short term,and rising prices will have a negative effect on consumption,and ultimately have negative effect on economic growth. |
PDF Full Text Request