| In July 1998, Central Government formally abolished welfare housing distribution system, completely implement" housing monetization"," housing commercialization" making the real estate market is gradually towards marketization, the marketization bring Sichuan real estate market with vitality. Since 2000, the rising of quantity and price and the booming of supply and demand appears in Sichuan real estate market. But the real estate market is in prosperity, at the same, it brings many problems. The investment of the real estate market overheated growth, the supply and demand structure of real estate market is irrational, housing prices are rising too fast, which brings the discordant and unstable factors to the sustainable development of society and economy and people's daily life. In addition, the real estate industry has become a pillar industry of China's national economy. Not only it makes great contribution to the economy itself, but also makes indirect contribution by promoting other industries, such as construction, building materials, steel, appliances, and furniture. The sustainability, stability and health of the development of real estate market play a key role in the harmonious development of the national economy.In order to promote a sustainable, stable and well developed real estate market, the central government and local governments in Sichuan Province issued a series of macro-control measures. Although the central government and Sichuan local government have made great efforts and attempts with continuous adjustment to the macro-control policy to stabilize the real estate market, but we can see from the status of the real estate market in Sichuan Province that there are still many problems before the real estate market. The macro-control policy has not achieved immediate results for the imbalanced supply and demand in the real estate market and high price.The consumption and development of the real estate can not go well without the support from finance, because the real estate industry is capital-intensive industry with long production cycle. Being the important means of national macroeconomic regulation and control, monetary policy plays a great important role in the development of the real estate, the primary part of the national economy. Base on this, this paper studies the conductivity of real estate price and the barriers to it in Sichuan real estate market, a specific area of economic and political environment for the analysis, and then offers the pertinent suggestions, which is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote a sustainable, stable and healthy developed real estate market.This paper is organized as follows:The first part gives the current situation of the real estate market in Sichuan. Firstly, the paper offers some conception and characteristic of the real estate market. Secondly, the current situation of the development of the market is described:First, the growth rate of investment in real estate development is high; second, the price of the real estate keeps rising and be at a high level; third, vacant housing area and the vacancy rate are both at high level. Finally, the paper shows the social and economic benefits from the real estate market, especially the enormous impact on the socioeconomic life.The second part tells the theoretical basis of conduction mechanism of monetary policy in real estate market. the conduction mechanism can be divided into two parts:the first part tells us how the monetary policy affect the prices through interest rates, credit, portfolio effects; the second part is the impact on the real economy from the real estate price with detailed description of process the real estate prices affect the real economy, highlighting two important aspects of the real economy, consumption and investment.The third part makes an empirical analysis of conduction mechanism of monetary policy in real estate market in Sichuan. Stationary test, co integration test, vector error correction model and Granger causality test and other quantitative methods are employed in the empirical analysis to verify whether the conduction mechanism of monetary policy is smooth. In section one; the paper takes one-year benchmark lending rate R and the money supply M2 as the monetary policy variables, and house sale price P as the variable for the real estate price to find out the relationship among the three variables. In section two, the paper takes the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and retail sales as the variables for consumption, the fixed assets investment as variables for investment, the total volume of foreign trade as the variable for foreign trade to analyze the influence on the real economy from house price.The empirical conclusions are as follows:(1) In the short term, there is little impact on the real estate prices in Sichuan from interest rates and money supply. In the long run, there is a significant positive relationship between money supply and real estate prices in Sichuan while the house prices and interest rates interact little with each other. Overall, the real estate prices in Sichuan are not so sensitive to the interest rates. And money supply has a significant impact on the real estate price in the long run. In the sample period from 2001 to 2010, the money supply affects real estate prices in Sichuan relatively significantly, while the interest rate is not. That is, the conduction mechanism of monetary policy is smooth in terms of money supply and blocked in terms of interest rate.(2) In the short term, real estate prices and consumption in Sichuan is positively correlated, indicating that consumer spending increases with the temporary rise of house prices; Investment and real estate prices are positively correlated, indicating that temporary rise in prices immediately causes increase in fixed assets investment; Foreign trade has a negative correlation with the real estate prices, indicating that the temporary rise in house prices causes the decrease of the total volume of import and export in short term. In the long run, the house prices keep negative correlation with the consumption, telling us the consumer spending is restrained due to the rise of the house prices; there is positive correlation between the house prices and investment, indicating that the rise of house prices give a boost to the fixed assets investment; the correlation between the house prices and foreign trade is negative, but not so significant, telling us there is no such relationship between the rise of house prices and increase in foreign trade.In the sample period from 2001 to 2010, the house prices in Sichuan have a great impact on the real economy and consumption with negative correlation. Being in short term or long term, the impact on the investment from house prices is significant and positive, indicating that the fixed assets investment increases with the rise of house prices. The correlation of house prices and foreign trade is not significant.The fourth part analyses the barriers to the conduction mechanism of monetary policy to real estate market and offers some advice. From the empirical results, we can get there are problems in both parts of the conduction. Based on this, the paper makes analysis of the barriers to the conduction mechanism, taking the specific background into consideration, and we get that the monetary policy itself and behavioral bias of the real estate participants play important part in it. Then the paper offers four targeted advice:promotion of interest rate liberalization, enhance in the public service ability, improve in the real estate finance system and regulation in the real estate market.The contribution of the paper is as follows:(1) Application innovationFor the present, the studies on the conduction mechanism of monetary policy on real estate have focused on the macro whole country, but lack of analysis on the various regions, especially on the Sichuan region. In addition, it is arguable whether the results of the whole country pertain to specific regions with different natural environment, geographical environment and economic activities in different regions. So the paper centers on the conduction mechanism in Sichuan province to make up for the blank in the study.(2) Granger causality test is employed in many studies on the conduction mechanism of monetary policy on the real estate, but most of them make analysis either in short term with error correction model or in long term only with vector autoregressive model. So the paper takes both into consideration to make contrast, and studies the relationship between the variables for monetary policy and variables for house prices, between the variables for real economy and house prices in both short and long term. |
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