| In recent years, China’s economy have a rapid development and the People’s living standard have improved gradually. After our country housing policy reformed, The welfare housing distribution policy is Cancelled and the monetization housing policy is instead of the welfare housing distribution policy. The reform have promoted the development of the real estate market undoubtedly. With the rapid development, we must pay attention to some problems of the real estate industry. such as, The investment of real estate market rose sharply, house is selled irrationally, the price of the real estate market grow too fast, people have some problems purchasing the house. In order to maintain the real estate market’s development stable and healthy, our government has issued several policy, the power of these policy is bigger and bigger, but from the result of controling the real estate, it’s effect is not significant. The real estate industry is an important part of our national economy and is a pillar industry of our country. Thus, it is too important. How to solve the problem of housing prices growing too fast and investment overheating not only attracted the government’s attention, but also caused the attention of the academia on this issue.Monetary policy is an important means of controlling the macroeconomic. It also plays an important role in regulating the real estate market. From 2003 to 2014, in order to maintain the development of the real estate market healthy and stable, the government have issued many monetary policy, inclued adjusting the lending and deposit rates and the scale of credit. Considering the development of the real estate industry will promote the development of many industries and the impact is big. Therefore, studying the impact of monetary policy on the real estate market is very necessary, it contributes to making more effective monetary policy and improve the credit of government.Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper mainly studied the main effect of China’s monetary policy on the real estate market, it is concluded that the effect of money supply, credit, and interest rate policy on housing consumption and investment. According to the conclusion, relevant Suggestions are put forward which help to maintain the development of the real estate market healthy and stable.Firstly, This paper combeds the domestic and foreign research result associated with the problem, and reviewes the monetary policy related to the real estate consumption and investment. The paper summarizes from three aspects, the credit scale, the deposit reserve rate, benchmark deposit and loan interest rate. Secondly, Through theoretical analysis, this paper analyzes the impact of broad money supply and the credit scale,interest rates on the real estate market. Then this paper describes the trend chart related to sales of commercial housing prices in recent years, real estate sales area, the real estate investment and the main source of funds about the real estate. On the basis of the above theoretical analysis, the real estate market and the monetary policy as the research object, select the corresponding indicators: broad money supply, and above the benchmark lending interest rate over a five-year period, the deposit reserve ratio, the loan balance financial institutions, commercial housing sales prices, real estate investment, this paper build two vector auto regressive modles respectively. From the perspective of the empirical research, it studys the impact of monetary policy on real estate market consumption and investment. Through empirical study finds:The credit scale and money supply can play a role for commercial housing sales prices,but from the perspective of the effect’s degree, adjusting money supply is a better way than adjusting the credit scale.The effect of interest rates and deposit reserve rate on commercial housing sale price is weak, the action of little effect,almost no effect.From the Angle of real estate development investment, credit scale and money supply, the deposit reserve rate play a role in adjusting the real estate investment. but from the perspective of the degree of function, regulate the money supply plays the biggest role. Interest rates has a certain effect on the real estate investment, but with the passage of time, the effect quickly reduced, eventually impact on real estate investment is almost zero. Finally, According to the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper argues that in order to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy tools, govement should strictly control the money supply.In order to avoid more hair, We should use a variety of measures to treat comprehensively. This passage puts forward policy Suggestions. such as, Improve the credit transmission mechanism of interest rate liberalization, Guide the reasonable public expectations, open market information. |
PDF Full Text Request