A Research On Financial Crisis Warning Of Small And Medium-Sized Enterprises Based On Online Finance Services

Small and medium-sized enterprises have always been an important part of our national economy.With the deepening of economic reform,on the one hand,small and medium-sized enterprises are developing vigorously,playing an active role in economic stability and providing employment;on the other hand,under the dual factors of fierce external market competition and irregular internal management,the average life span of small and medium-sized enterpr:ises in China is less than three years,and the operation process of small and medium-sized enterprises is:in progress.Facing greater financial risks.Therefore,it is of great significance to establish a financial crisis early warning mechanism for small and medium-sized enterprises.Compared with large enterprises,SMEs lack professionals and expensive IT information input to establish such a crisis early warning mechanism.At present,the financial informationization system which is widely used in small and medium-sized enterprises can only provide standard accounting processing and routine financial index analysis,can not carry out systematic financial early warning,can not obtain external information for information exchange,and lacks real-time analysis and processing of data.In recent years,with the rapid development of Internet and cloud computing,online financial services(SaaS)have sprung up rapidly.Data online provides the possibility for the establishment of financial crisis early warning system.Firstly,this paper elaborates the research background,significance,content and research methods.This paper introduces the definition,importance and operating characteristics of SMEs.Through the analysis of the causes of SMEs'financial crisis,and from the perspective of information application,it puts forward the design idea of constructing the early warning module of SMEs' financial crisis based on online financial service platform.Subsequently,with ST as the classification criterion of financial crisis,20 ST enterprises and 60 normal enterprises of SMEs listed companies were selected as samples for empirical research.With financial indicators as the main part and non-financial indicators introduced,the financial crisis early warning index system suitable for small and medium-sized enterprises is constructed.The principal component analysis method is used to reduce the dimension of 29 early warning indicators,and 8 principal components are extracted as input variables of the early warning model.After comparing the common financial crisis early warning models,BP neural network is selected as the early warning model.Through two rounds of training,60 training samples are used to establish the model,and 20 test samples are used to evaluate the model.The application of BP neural network in the early warning model of financial crisis of small and medium-sized enterprises is obtained,which has a good prediction effect.Finally,the possible improvement direction and future development of this study are prospected.