Research On Supervising And Early Warning Of Small & Medium Enterprises (SMEs)' Financial Risk Based On BP Artificial Neural Network

Small&Medium Enterprises(SMEs) has been new blood in economic reform of our country, It develop rapidly and play a prominent role in the entire economic structure. But the business management of SMEs face more and more severe challenges with increasingly fierce market competition. How to adapt to the changing environment and make an accurate forecast in financial risk, is become a practical and serious problem.SMEs's financial risk early warning and monitoring is in general, integrated, comprehensive, systematic analysis and judgement for SMEs's financial risk, it's a series of index of SMEs's financial activities and the status for monitoring and measurement. Starting from the monitoring results and according to the process systematic understanding, the alarm in SMEs's business activities may be a turning point and the major changes in the future is use a series of economic index to established"barometer"or"alarm"of SMEs's financial risk.It use method such as theoretical analysis, experience analysis, mathematical statistics and so on. It is clear that SMEs's business activities has change at each level, understanding the change in SMEs's business process, guide in the management decisions readjust rational to the SMEs's business activities, and it is conducive to the government to make measures in time, so .it have great practical significance.This paper combine warning index and artificial neural network based on theoretical analysis and practical applications, firstly, this paper expounded the the classification, selection, pretreatment methods of financial risk index, followed by used the Delphi method to determine the weight of each index, and then establish the index system of early warning, divide index threshold, and use mathematical method integrated a single index into synthetical early warning index, on the basis, use BP neural network model to early warning index to make forecast of trend.Finally, to verify the validity of model, this paper through Electronic enterprise to make empirical study for SME's financial risk monitor early warning system. On its financial risk to make conclusions both of comprehensive judgement and trend judgement.