Research On The Foreign Trade Policy Of China(Fujian) Pilot Free Trade Zone Under A Counterfactual Framework

The construction of China Pilot Free Trade Zone is a strategic move of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to comprehensively deepen reform and expand the opening up under the new situation,which is the national strategic need.China(Fujian)Pilot Free Trade Zone is the second batch free trade experimental area established in China.It is the most important opening port in the eastern coastal area of China and one of the most important free ports in the future of our country.In this paper,the "counterfactual" policy evaluation method is applied to foreign trade policy evaluation for the first time,which enriches the research methods of foreign trade policy.It also proves the applicability of the policy effect evaluation method based on panel data in the study of the policy evaluation of the FTZ in China,which provides a new idea and a new method for the self-inspection of the policy implementation effect of the FTZ in China.In the study,combining macroeconomic indicators with foreign trade indicators,the foreign trade policy effects of Fujian Free Trade Test area are evaluated from the current situation of macroeconomic development and the level of foreign trade development.In this paper,using the data of 20 provinces and cities without free trade test area,11 economic indexes of Fujian free trade test are fitted with "counter-fact",including macroeconomic index,gross domestic product index,investment completion index,The number of industrial enterprises above the scale and the total assets of industrial enterprises above the scale;and the foreign trade index,the total import and export volume,the total import and export value of the Sino-foreign joint venture,Total import and export of Chinese-foreign contractual joint venture,total import and export of foreign-funded enterprises and total import and export of foreign-invested enterprises.By comparing the true value and "counterfact" of Fujian Free Trade Test area after its establishment,the difference is taken as the basis for measuring the effect of foreign trade policy in Fujian Free Trade Test area.The results show that the foreign trade policy has played a certain role in promoting the development of local foreign trade since the construction of Fujian Free Trade pilot Zone,in which the pulling effect of macro indexes is obvious,and the average policy pull effect of the index of gross domestic product(GDP),investment completion,the number of industrial enterprises above scale and the total assets of industrial enterprises above scale is 0.4%,0.33%and 0.3%respectively.In addition to the total volume of imports and exports,the total imports and exports of Sino-foreign contractual joint ventures and the total import and export volume of Sino-foreign contractual joint ventures have a positive policy effect of 0.32%,1.4%and 2.33%respectively,the other four indicators of the foreign trade index are negative.Through the research of this paper,it is proved that the policy of Fujian Free Trade pilot area can play a positive role in the regional macroeconomic development and foreign trade,but there are also underdeveloped exports and unbalanced development of industry and science and technology.On the basis of the lack of independent intellectual property rights and core competitiveness,the shortage of independent brands and transnational enterprises,this paper puts forward the development path and policy suggestions of foreign trade from the perspective of free trade test area.