Research On Perfecting Local Government Debt Management Model And Risk Control Mechanism

The European debt crisis has triggered concern about government debt problems.Due to the increasingly serious problem of local government debt,China's long-term sovereign credit rating has been downgaraded.In 2011 and 2013,the National Audit Office conducted a comprehensive audit of local government debts,and publicized the local government debt risk.The Ministry of Finance and the State Council have issued policy documents on debt management.The local government debt management system is gradually being established,but compared with mature debt management model and risk control system in foreign countries,it is still far from perfect.Under the above-mentioned various situations,how to control and manage local government debt risk has become an urgent problem to be solved.The first part is the introduction,which analyzes the research significance andbackground of this paper,sorts out and comments on the relevant research progress at home and abroad,expounds the research ideas,constructs the logical framework,introduces the research methods used in this paper,and finally explains the paper's Innovation and deficiencies.The second part is a general analysis of local government debt management.Firstly,the concept related to local government debt and itsmanagement is defined,Secondly,it provides a theoretical basis for local government debt management,which is discussed from five aspects:public product theory,new public management theory,government debt risk management theory,principal-agent theory and game theory.Furthermore,it introduces the meaning,type and influence factors of the government debt management mode.Finally,it describes the composition of local government debt risk control mechanism,including:prior scale control,use of funds in the event,guarantee of debt repayment afterwards;Fund management;Repayment guarantee system;Debt budget management;Debt risk warning;Transparency requirements and debt regulation.The third part reviews the development process of China's debt management by reviewing the related issues of debt management,and divides China's debt management into three stages:The first is a initial attempt to start debt management;Secondly,it is the stage of comprehensive regulation to establish a debt management framework in all aspects,the last is strengthen and improve by checking the missing vacanacies,and focus on strengthening the management of invisible or debt.The fourth part is to study the foreign mature debt management experience,start from the debt management model and risk control system,analyze the actual experience of each representative country.Finally,based on the experience of summarizing the mature systems,we get three inspirations.The fifth part uses Liaoning Province as a sample for empirical analysis.First,use the quantitative method to analyze the current debt status and debt management status,highlight problems and solve problems.Then,the paper describes the local government debt situation and management of Liaoning Province from a qualitative perspective,and then measures the debt risk of Liaoning Province from a quantitative perspective and evaluates the investment efficiency of Liaoning local government debt.Finally,based on the analysis results,the problems in Liaoning debt management are analyzed.The sixth part proposes countermeasures to strengthen local government debt management.Firstly,starting from the specific choice of debt management mode,and then making recommendations for optimizing the debt operation management mechanism,and then giving the system design ideas for improving the budget management system,establishing a complete risk pre-mechanism and debt transparency and supervision system.There are three possible innovations in this paper:(1)Through the KMV model,the debt risk measurement of liaoning province was carried out,and the scale control line of the 3-year,5-year and 7-year local government bonds issued by liaoning province was obtained,as well as the corresponding default distance and default probability,which has reference significance for the debt risk measurement and control of Liaoning province and other provinces. (2)Evaluate the efficiency of the use of debt funds in Liaoning Province.Through the DEA model and the Malmquist index,the debt utilization efficiency of the 13 cities in Liaoning Province was analyzed,and the influencing factors of debt efficiency and change were analyzed.This paper analyzes the use of debt funds in Liaoning Province from both horizontal and vertical perspectives,and proposes suggestions for improving the efficiency of debt funds.(3)In accordance with the actual situation in Liaoning,the system design of government debt management and risk control in China was carried out.It provides certain concrete suggestions for selecting the debt management model suitable for the national conditions,standardizing the use and repayment of debt funds,improving the debt budget management,and establishing a risk early warning mechanism.